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The price of Brent crude oil will reach or exceed $200 per barrel before December 31, 2026.

Dec 31, 2026

Community 35%

The price of Brent crude oil will reach or exceed $200 per barrel before December 31, 2026.

CreatedCreation date

Apr 2, 2026Apr 2, 2026, 08:16 AM UTC

ResolvesResolution date

Dec 31, 2026Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC

Tags

Geopolitics Economy Energy

Recent reports emphasize that a new phase of the oil crisis is beginning "right now," with some sources explicitly linking it to a war in Iran. This crisis is described as potentially the largest in modern history, intensifying the discussion around $200 oil.

Resolved YES if the daily closing price of Brent crude oil, as reported by a reputable financial news source such as Bloomberg, Reuters, or the EIA, reaches or exceeds $200 USD per barrel at any point before December 31, 2026. Otherwise, resolved NO.

Recent reports emphasize that a new phase of the oil crisis is beginning "right now," with some sources explicitly linking it to a war in Iran. This crisis is described as potentially the largest in modern history, intensifying the discussion around $200 oil.

Last updated: Apr 6, 2026, 01:24 PM UTC

Based on

AI estimate

Oracle

62%± 8%

TruthMachine Oracle (news-indexer match) · 77 articles

Community 35%

You 50%

AI 62%

Forecasts History

Will happen1

70%

Won't happen1

0%

Sources behind the AI estimate(80 publications)

Publications that fed the Oracle, shown as voters — each takes a side on the claim by the stance of its reporting.

Press lean51% · will

Press leans toward 'will happen' · 51%

Will happen (7)

HN

Hananya Naftali2465–88%↑ 85%

מבזק↑ 85%Strait of Hormuz effectively shut down; oil spikes to ~$85; tankers hit↑ 88%Иран угрожает перекрыть судоходство в Красном море с помощью хуситов↑ 83%The US Treasury announced it has canceled all prior authorizations for the production, sale, and transfer of Iranian crude and petroleum products.↑ 81%Trump saying the ceasefire between the US and Iran is finished and that the US will "probably hit them hard again tonight".↑ 75%מבזק↑ 78%מבזק ☄️↑ 70%מבזק 🚨 מכה אנושה לסעודיה (ולמצרים).↑ 75%מבזק↑ 75%There are major explosions reported in Iran right now, reports of a significant operation taken place↑ 75%США нанесли четвертую волну ударов по Ирану. Тегеран отвечает↑ 75%Trump on Iran: "We're going to hit them very hard tonight. Very hard tomorrow night. The night after."↑ 75%Trump reportedly said the U.S. will "take over Hormuz and get paid for it… we're taking everything from them, oil, gold, land, money. They broke the deal… we'll hit the Iranians very hard, tonight too↑ 68%Nasser Hemmati, Governor of the Central Bank of Iran: Iranian oil exports have stopped, and we are no longer exporting oil at all.↑ 73%🇮🇷 В аналитической статье Хамида Резы Азизи, опубликованной 30 июля подробно исследуется эскалация американо-иранского противостояния в июле 2026 года, которое трансформировалось в войну на истощение↑ 73%США нанесли удары по Ирану и вернули ограничения на экспорт иранской нефти в ответ на атаки по танкерам в Ормузском проливе↑ 73%Шестая волна атак США по Ирану. Трамп угрожает нанести удар по электростанциям↑ 73%🇾🇪 «Ансар Аллах» (хуситы) объявили о введении морской блокады против Саудовской Аравии.↑ 70%דיווח אמריקאי: "ארה"ב תפתח הלילה במתקפה רחבת היקף על איראן".↑ 70%גורם אמריקאי בכיר לברק רביד: ארה״ב תוקפת יעדים איראניים באזור מצר הורמוז בתגובה לתקיפת הספינה ע״י משמרות המהפכה מוקדם יותר היום↑ 70%CENTCOM just confirmed: dozens of Iranian military targets hit.↑ 70%מבזק↑ 65%החות'ים מודיעים: פגענו "במטרה רגישה" בשדה התעופה בסעודיה↑ 65%מבזק↑ 65%

O

oilprice.com914–89%↑ 89%

U.S. Refiners Face New Crude Squeeze as Canada Cuts Oil Sands Output | OilPrice.com↑ 89%Oil Prices Set for Weekly Gain as Hormuz Tensions Escalate | OilPrice.com↓ 14%Goldman Warns Oil Could Hit $120 as Middle East War Drags On | OilPrice.com↓ 19%U.S. Gasoline Prices Could Hit $4 Per Gallon Within Days | OilPrice.com↓ 24%Oil Tops $100 as Supply Crisis Deepens | OilPrice.com↑ 75%Brent Futures Flip to Backwardation as Middle East Supply Risks Return | OilPrice.com↓ 22%Hormuz Attacks Push Oil Toward $100 Despite US Crude Build | OilPrice.com↑ 72%China to Hike Retail Gasoline and Diesel Prices as Oil Jumps 12% in a Week | OilPrice.com↑ 68%BofA: Hormuz Needs 10 Times More Ships to Stabilize Oil Markets | OilPrice.com–

Y

ynet.co.il568–82%↑ 79%

"כרגע אנחנו בחוץ, הכול יכול להשתנות": הדריכות בישראל, וההסלמה הצפויה באיראן↑ 79%"מי שיתקדם - יושמד": טילים ותקיפות במפרץ; האצה בהכנות להפצצת מתקני הגרעין באיראן↑ 82%הסלמה במזרח התיכון: אזעקות בירדן, תקיפה ליד הכור הגרעיני בבושהר↑ 68%המצור הוסר, הנפט זורם - ואיראן חוגגת בזמן שהיא תוקפת את שכנותיה↑ 70%המדינות שתחת האש, והאיום מטהרן: "תם עידן ההסכמים החד-צדדיים"↑ 77%

H

hnaftali.com273–75%↑ 73%

The Ceasefire is Dead: Why the Latest U.S. Strikes on Iran Change Everything↑ 73%Why President Trump Gave Iran Another Chance↑ 75%

M

meduza.io250–68%↑ 68%

Цена нефти Brent вновь превысила 90 долларов за баррель на фоне эскалации между США и Ираном — Meduza↑ 68%Цена нефти Brent превысила 100 долларов за баррель впервые с конца мая — Meduza–

T

thealaskastory.comOil prices surge, with Alaska North Slope crude over $120 a barrel - Alaska Story↑ 77%

Y

ynetnews.comUS, Iran weigh 10-day ceasefire proposal as Middle East fighting escalates↑ 69%

Won't happen (9)

F

finance.yahoo.com1616–73%↓ 16%

China’s Crude Imports Plunge To Lowest Level Since 2018↓ 16%Current price of oil as of July 30, 2026↓ 18%Current price of oil as of July 29, 2026↓ 18%Current price of oil as of July 21, 2026↓ 24%Oil prices remain on course for strong weekly gains amid escalating Middle East tensions↓ 22%Here's how much higher oil prices could go as hopes for an Iran peace deal fade↓ 24%Oil Markets Ignore Mounting Risks at Their Own Peril↓ 18%Why Global Diesel Prices Are Soaring: War, Hurricanes & Drone Attacks↑ 73%Hormuz Attacks Push Oil Toward $100 Despite US Crude Build↑ 72%Goldman Sachs' new oil price target sparks wild onchain trading↓ 26%Goldman Sachs Says Oil Could Surpass $120 a Barrel if Hormuz Disruptions Don't Ease. Here's What That Means for Oil Stocks.–Current price of oil as of July 16, 2026–Current price of oil as of July 27, 2026↓ 32%How long could global oil stockpiles last if supply disruptions continue?–Brent Could Hit $100 as Hormuz Crisis Flares Again↑ 63%Current price of oil as of July 13, 2026–

F

fortune.com84–50%settling↓ 4%

Current price of oil as of Aug. 24, 2026 | Fortunesettling↓ 4%Current price of oil as of Aug. 27, 2026 | Fortune↓ 22%Current price of oil as of July 6, 2026 | Fortune↓ 17%Current price of oil as of July 23, 2026 | Fortune↓ 23%Current price of oil as of July 2, 2026 | Fortune↓ 25%Current price of oil as of July 9, 2026 | Fortune↓ 27%Current price of oil as of July 14, 2026 | Fortune–Current price of oil as of July 24, 2026 | Fortune–

A

aljazeera.net420–25%↓ 20%

اضطراب هرمز يدفع النفط إلى مكاسب أسبوعية والهند تعزز احتياطياتها↓ 20%غولدمان ساكس: استمرار اضطرابات هرمز سيرفع سعر النفط إلى 120 دولارا↓ 20%غولدمان ساكس: سعر النفط قد يقفز إلى 120 دولارا في هذه الحالة↓ 23%3 سيناريوهات لمستقبل أسعار النفط بعد اشتعال مضيق هرمز↓ 25%

A

aa.com.trOil prices fall over 5% as US-Iran talks set to resume↓ 25%

T

timesofindia.indiatimes.comNew warning on oil: Goldman Sachs says crude prices could cross $120 if Strait of Hormuz disruptions continue↓ 21%

T

tagesschau.deÖlpreise bleiben auf Krisenniveau↓ 17%

E

eia.govEIA expects lower crude oil prices for the second half of 2023 and for 2024 - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)↓ 16%

A

aljazeera.comOil prices, stocks surge as Hormuz closure drags on↓ 15%

M

middleeasteye.netOil prices spike as renewed US-Iran war threatens global supply route↓ 15%

Neutral / unclear (2)

U

univest.inCrude Oil Prediction for Tomorrow 31 July 2026: Brent and MCX Levels–

S

semafor.comOil tops $100 per barrel again as Middle East war looks set to drag on–

Author·

komapcA·Reputation 104

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Forecast by komapc · opened Apr 2, 2026 · resolves Dec 31, 2026 · 2 forecasters · community consensus 35% · AI estimate 62% · open for forecasts.

Author

komapcAReputation 104

Creation date

Apr 2, 2026, 08:16 AM UTC

Resolution date

Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC

Tags

Geopolitics Economy Energy

Discussion (0)

No comments yet. Be the first to share your thoughts!