RESOLVED CORRECT

Sep 16, 2026

The U.S. Federal Reserve will raise its benchmark interest rate by at least 0.25 percentage points at its September 2026 meeting.

CreatedCreation date

Sep 1, 2026Sep 1, 2026, 12:23 PM UTC

ResolvesResolution date

Sep 16, 2026Sep 16, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC

Context

Global markets are currently experiencing declines, against a backdrop of expectations for interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, which are driving up oil prices.…

Community 70%

You 50%

AI 97%

The Oracul reads this question as already decided — this number is a settlement pin, not a pooled average of the sources.Reported as decided by: bbc.com, bbc.com, aljazeera.com, pbs.org, thehill.com, france24.com, finance.yahoo.com, foreignpolicy.com, thehill.com, finance.yahoo.com, theconversation.com, aa.com.tr, jpost.com, cnbc.com, srugim.co.il, fortune.com, kikar.co.il, aljazeera.com, lemonde.fr, cnbc.com, timesofindia.indiatimes.com, finance.yahoo.com

Based on 112 sources · how this is calculated

Resolution

Resolved as correct on Oct 13, 2026

The resolution criteria require the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to have raised its benchmark interest rate by at least 0.25 percentage points at its September 2026 meeting. Multiple sources confirm this occurred. A CNBC article from September 15, 2026, states, "The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%-4%." An article from Chase Bank dated July 30, 2026, confirms the previous rate was a "target range of 3.50% to 3.75%." The increase from a range of 3.50%-3.75% to 3.75%-4.00% is a 0.25 percentage point hike, satisfying the claim's condition.

Evidence:

Forecasts History

Will happen1

Kron BM

70%+16

Won't happen0

—

Sources behind the evidence estimate(112 publications)

Publications that fed the Oracul, shown as voters — each takes a side on the claim by the stance of its reporting.

Press lean89% · will

Will happen (21)

finance.yahoo.com6650–98%settling↑ 98%

What a Fed rate hike means for your bank accounts, loans, credit cards, and investmentssettling↑ 98%Here Are Wednesday’s Top Wall Street Analyst Research Calls: Airbnb, Booking Holdings, Credicorp, Dutch Bros, Expedia, Hartford Financial Services, Group, Meritage Homes, Patchex, Yum! Brands, and Moresettling↑ 96%Fed raises interest rates by a quarter point in unanimous decision, marking first hike in 3 yearssettling↑ 95%Goldman Sachs Expects Fed Chair Kevin Warsh to Raise Rates This Week — But Not Because of Oil Prices.↑ 96%Bill Dudley Expects Fed to Raise Rate by 25 Bps↑ 93%Crypto Market Braces for Volatility as Goldman Sachs & JPMorgan Expect Fed Rate Hike This Week↑ 96%How a Fed rate hike would affect your bank accounts, loans, credit cards, and investments↑ 94%Wall Street Bets on Rate Hike From a Fed Hemmed In by Persistent Inflation↑ 92%10-Year Yield Surges to 19-Year High: Here’s What Traders Need to Know Now↑ 93%Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan expect Fed rate hike this week↑ 94%Morning Bid: A time to hike?↑ 94%Forget the Rate Hike! The Fed’s Dot Plot Could Trigger a Massive Crypto Shock Today↑ 92%Chances of First Fed Rate Hike Since 2023 Now Over 90% — Markets Brace for the Warsh-Era Shock↑ 94%Fed Meeting Interest Rate Decision Preview: How Will Stocks React?↑ 91%Will the Fed Raise Rates on September 16? Polymarket Now Says 83%. Here’s What It Means for XRP and Bitcoin↑ 95%Fed expected to raise interest rates for first time since 2023↑ 94%Fed Hike Odds Hit 93%: 3 Things That Could Really Surprise Markets Wednesday↑ 91%The Chances of a Federal Reserve Rate Hike Are Surging. Here's What It Means for the Stock Market.↑ 91%The Odds of a Rate Hike Are Soaring Ahead of the Sept. 16 FOMC Meeting↑ 91%Federal Reserve: 1 Thing All Investors Need to Know Before Sept. 16↑ 89%Fed Meets Next Week To Confront Rising Inflation Pressures↑ 91%Fed rate-hike odds surge as Warsh faces inflation-weary markets↑ 91%Fund manager's Fed interest rate outlook will frustrate consumers↑ 90%Fed rate hike odds surge to 90% on monthly jump in core prices↑ 90%A highly anticipated Fed meeting, war worries, and an unblinking stock market: What to watch this week↑ 92%The Fed Is Expected to Raise Interest Rates Wednesday. Should You Buy the S&P 500 Before It Does?↑ 89%With Just 5 Days to Next FOMC Meeting, Odds of Fed Rate Hike Surge to Over 85%↑ 90%Markets Steady as Investors Await Rate Decision↑ 86%Is it finally time? Why the Fed may raise rates for first time since 2023.↑ 90%Fed meeting live updates: Anticipation builds with Fed expected to hike interest rates for first time in 3 years↑ 88%Inflation Stays Stubbornly High in August. Here's How Likely a Fed Rate Hike Is Next Week↑ 90%The Fed’s Out of Patience — Officials Sound Ready to Halt the Markets Gains With Rate Hikes↑ 88%New Fed Chair Warsh Vowed a Policy Overhaul to Crush Inflation When He Took Office. Has He Followed Through?↑ 88%US Dollar Price Forecast: Fed Hike Bets Rise as CPI Takes Center Stage; EUR/USD and GBP/USD Key Levels to Watch↑ 89%Fed’s Barr: If inflation doesn’t moderate, then we should raise rates↑ 91%This Indicator Hasn’t Been This High in 4 Years. It Means the Fed Could Raise Rates in 2026↑ 89%What Bond Yields Do After a Hiking Cycle Starts↑ 84%Louis Navellier: Don’t fear the Fed↑ 88%Sept. 16 Will Provide a Clearer Path for Interest Rates -- These 3 High-Yield Dividend Stocks Win Either Way↑ 89%Investors: Sept. 16 Will Be a Critical Day for the Stock Market. Here's What You Need to Know.↑ 92%Gasoline likely to boost US consumer prices in August↑ 86%What Happens to Bitcoin Price If the Fed Raises Interest Rates on Sept. 16?↑ 90%Fed Governor Michael Barr warns of rate hike if inflation stays high↑ 89%Wall Street bets on a rate hike, but the Fed decision could be a close call↑ 88%Wall Street Expects Bad News From the Federal Reserve This Week. History Says a Stock Market Correction May Follow.↑ 91%Fed rate hike expected Wednesday under Kevin Warsh↑ 93%Marathon's Richards Says Equities Can Absorb 25 Bps Fed Hike↑ 84%US Dollar Price Forecast: Fed Hike Bets Rise as ECB Tightening Supports Euro; EUR/USD and GBP/USD Key Levels↑ 90%Fed Rate Hike Odds Rise to 61% After PPI Comes in Hotter than Expected↑ 95%There Is Now An 83% to 90% Chance the Fed Raises Interest Rates on Sept. 16. Here's What History Says Would Happen to the S&P 500 Index Next.↑ 93%Are interest rates on the way up again?↑ 91%Interest rate decision live: Fed weighs first hike since 2023↑ 89%Warsh's Jackson Hole encore may put Trump's inflation record under a microscope↑ 84%Jeremy Siegel Says Fed Should Raise Rates Next Week Despite Selloff Risk↑ 84%What To Expect From Friday’s Inflation Report↑ 89%UBS Expects Two Fed Rate Hikes by End of 2026 After Warsh Speech and Jobs Data↑ 89%Fed's Barr open to rate hike if inflation does not moderate↑ 85%Fed Governor Chris Waller Just Significantly Upped the Stakes for the Sept. 11 Inflation Report. It Could Decide Whether There is a Rate Hike at the Fed's Upcoming Meeting↑ 88%Stock futures rise ahead of Fed interest rate decision Sept. 2026↑ 92%Here's Why This Friday Could Be One of the Most Critical Days for the Stock Market in September↑ 86%The Odds of a September Rate Hike Just Jumped. Should You Still Buy the S&P 500?↑ 86%Fed rate-hike threat heats up this week as August inflation data looms↑ 84%Top Economist Says the Fed Should Hike Rates 50 Basis Points Next Week. The Bond Market Is Already Near His Danger Zone.↑ 90%CPI Data Prediction Market Preview: Traders Brace for a Razor-Thin Call↑ 91%Markets News, Sept. 4, 2026: Stocks Close Lower as Hot August Jobs Report Lifts Expectations for Fed Interest Rate Hike–A Fed Rate Hike May Be in the Cards on Sept. 16, and 36 Years of History Says the Stock Market Won't Be Happy (at Least Initially)–

cnbc.com1150–96%settling↑ 96%

Fed approves interest rate hike, signals one more to come this yearsettling↑ 96%Fed delivers its first hike in 3 years. Plus, what's moving Starbucks and GE Vernovasettling↑ 95%Wells Fargo sees improvement in a key metric — plus, Lilly gets praise beyond GLP-1s↑ 90%Warsh's credibility is on the line this week as Trump policies put pressure on Fed to hike↑ 91%What to expect from stocks and bonds if interest rates remain higher for longer, according to investing pros↑ 89%The Fed is likely to raise interest rates as inflation persists. What that means for consumers↑ 88%No one and done: The Fed will hike at least two times over the next year, according to CNBC survey↑ 93%Treasury yields rise as global bond sell-off continues↑ 85%Trump pushes Fed for lower rates, but consumers may be better off with a hike, experts say↑ 90%The likelihood of a Fed interest rate hike next week just got a lot higher↑ 87%Friday's CPI inflation report is even more important than usual. Here's what to expect–

thehill.com584–98%settling↑ 98%

Federal Reserve delivers unwelcome news to Trumpsettling↑ 98%Fed hikes rates for first time in over 3 yearssettling↑ 95%Stubborn inflation raises prospect of Fed rate hike↑ 88%Stubborn inflation raises prospect of Fed rate hike↑ 87%Warsh under pressure as Fed considers rate hike↑ 84%

fortune.com478–96%settling↑ 96%

The Fed just delivered a unanimous rate hike, the first in three years, and no cuts through 2027 | Fortunesettling↑ 96%Upcoming inflation data could determine if the Federal Reserve hikes interest rates soon, leaving Wall Street on edge | Fortune↑ 89%As Wall Street shifts expectations towards a Fed rate hike, the White House turns up the pressure on Warsh's central bank | Fortune↑ 89%Trump says he’ll give everyone $5,000 if you vote Republican—but it’s questionable whether he can deliver on the promise | Fortune↑ 78%

bbc.com383–95%settling↑ 95%

США впервые за три года повысили процентную ставку, Трамп недоволен - BBC News Русская службаsettling↑ 95%La Reserva Federal de EE.UU. aumenta las tasas de interés por primera vez en 3 años: ¿qué efectos tendrá la medida? - BBC News Mundosettling↑ 95%العالم قد يكون أمام المزيد من رفع أسعار الفائدة للسيطرة على التضخم - BBC News عربي↑ 83%

aljazeera.com293–98%settling↑ 98%

What to know about US Federal Reserve’s first interest rate hike in 3 yearssettling↑ 98%US Fed raises interest rates as inflation weighs on economysettling↑ 93%

aa.com.tr284–98%settling↑ 98%

Fed raises US inflation outlook while lowering unemployment forecastssettling↑ 98%Increasing oil prices intensify inflationary pressures during Fed week↑ 84%

theguardian.com288–94%↑ 94%

Federal Reserve expected to announce interest rate increase – live↑ 94%Surging inflation puts interest rates back in focus as policymakers meet in Japan, US and UK↑ 88%

investors.com289–93%↑ 93%

The Fed Will Be Hawkish. The S&P 500 May Prefer It (Live)↑ 93%Benchmark Yield Hits 5%. How Will Stocks Respond To A Fed Rate Hike?↑ 89%

pbs.org289–91%settling↑ 91%

Interest rate hike a ‘reassuring’ sign Fed is acting independently, economist sayssettling↑ 91%WATCH LIVE: Warsh holds briefing after Fed meeting as interest rates expected to rise↑ 89%

yahoo.com288–88%↑ 88%

Federal Reserve Poised to Raise Interest Rates: What to Know↑ 88%US Gas Prices Hit Record High; Fed Poised to Raise Interest Rates↑ 88%

jpost.com United States Federal Reserve raises interest rates for first time since 2023 | The Jerusalem Postsettling↑ 98%

srugim.co.ilארה"ב בצרות: הבנק הפדרלי מעלה את הריבית - סרוגיםsettling↑ 98%

timesofindia.indiatimes.comUS Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh-led FOMC hikes interest rate to 3.75-4% range; first time since 2023settling↑ 97%

lemonde.frLa Fed va à l’encontre de Donald Trump et augmente ses taux directeurs pour lutter contre l’inflation aux Etats-Unissettling↑ 96%

france24.comBusiness - US Federal Reserve defies Trump with interest rate hikesettling↑ 95%

theconversation.comUS consumers and businesses are now facing a future of more expensive borrowingsettling↑ 94%

foreignpolicy.comThe Fed Bucks Trump and Raises Interest Ratessettling↑ 93%

kikar.co.ilלראשונה מזה שנים: הבנק הפדרלי בבשורה דרמטית לאזרחים האמריק..settling↑ 93%

upi.comFederal Reserve to announce interest rate decision; hike expected - UPI.com↑ 91%

oilprice.comSoaring Oil Prices Put Fed on Track for September Rate Hike | OilPrice.com↑ 88%

Won't happen (1)

aljazeera.netتوقعات بتثبيت الفدرالي الأمريكي الفائدة حتى نهاية 2026↓ 8%

Author·

andrey1barA·ELO 1409

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Forecast by andrey1bar · opened Sep 1, 2026 · resolves Sep 16, 2026 · 1 forecaster · community consensus 70% · evidence estimate 97% · resolved correct.

Author

andrey1barAELO 1409

Creation date

Sep 1, 2026, 12:23 PM UTC

Resolution date

Sep 16, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC

Discussion (0)

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