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DAATAN
RESOLVED CORRECT
Apr 30, 2026

A ceasefire will be declared in the conflict involving Iran by April 30, 2026.

Created
Mar 31, 2026
Resolves
Apr 30, 2026
Tags
ConflictGeopoliticsIran
Israeli sources suggest a potential ceasefire announcement by Trump soon, possibly by the end of the week, indicating a push for de-escalation. This comes as the Ministry of Finance cut growth forecasts, anticipating the conflict in Iran and Lebanon to continue into April. Meanwhile, some market predictors who foresaw the war are now betting on a US-Iran agreement and a ceasefire by mid-April, with Iran reportedly linking a ceasefire to Lebanon as well.
50%You
Community 55%
You 50%

Resolution

Resolved as correct on May 5, 2026

A ceasefire was declared within the forecast period. The 'understandingwar.org' article, dated April 7, 2026, explicitly states that 'US President Donald Trump announced on April 7 that the United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire deal mediated by Pakistan.' This constitutes a formal ceasefire declaration by an official government statement involving Iran. The 'nytimes.com' article from April 21, 2026, further references a 'cease-fire' and disputes over its coverage, indicating that a ceasefire was in effect or had been declared and was being discussed, which implies it was observed for at least 48 hours following its declaration.

Evidence:

Forecasts History

Will happen1
omri cohen-alloro
omri cohen-alloroAuthor
55%+5
Won't happen1
Evgeny Ber
Evgeny Ber
55%+5

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Forecast by omri cohen-alloro · opened Mar 31, 2026 · resolves Apr 30, 2026 · 2 forecasters · community consensus 55% · resolved correct.