What are the chances that A single large political list will not be formed, including at least four of the following six politicians: Benny Gantz, Yoaz Hendel, Hili Tropper, Ayelet Shaked, Yuli Edelstein, and Gilaad Erdan, by the final deadline for submitting candidate lists for the next general elections in Israel, expected to take place by December 31, 2026? As of Aug 21, 2026: the AI estimate is 48%; the community estimate is 75%. · Updated Aug 21, 2026
includes time-remaining adjustment — deadline in 133 days
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Publications that fed the Oracle, shown as voters — each takes a side on the claim by the stance of its reporting.
Will happen (6)
Won't happen (4)
Neutral / unclear (2)
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Forecast by Kron BM · opened Jul 7, 2026 · resolves Sep 11, 2026 · 2 forecasters · community consensus 75% · AI estimate 48% · open for forecasts.
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