Dec 31, 2026
Community 60%
Benjamin Netanyahu will form the next government in Israel by December 31, 2026.
CreatedCreation date
May 19, 2026May 19, 2026, 05:08 PM UTC
ResolvesResolution date
Dec 31, 2026Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC
Benjamin Netanyahu has already won the November 1 election and was sworn in as Prime Minister on December 29, 2026, forming a new far-right government. This development confirms the formation of the next government by the specified date, occurring amidst his ongoing corruption trial and the recent firing of his defense minister over war management.
Community 60%
You 50%
AI 81%
includes time-remaining adjustment — deadline in 171 days
Probability over time
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Forecasts History
Will happen1
Won't happen1
K
komapc
44%
Sources behind the AI estimate(24 publications)
Publications that fed the Oracle, shown as voters — each takes a side on the claim by the stance of its reporting.
Press lean61% · will
Press leans toward 'will happen' · 61%Will happen (9)
Yynet.co.il4↑ 92%
Jjpost.com4↑ 75%
Netanyahu's unity government pivot could reshape Israeli politics, end boycott | The Jerusalem Post↑ 50%Israeli citizens abroad attempt to secure airline tickets for October elections | The Jerusalem Post–Netanyahu’s coalition strategy behind legislative blitz | The Jerusalem Post–Netanyahu's national unity government proposal must be made concrete | The Jerusalem Post–
Aaljazeera.net2↑ 94%
J
jns.orgIsrael’s historic right-wing government is the democratic will of the voters↑ 98%A
atlanticcouncil.orgIsrael’s next government must prioritize the Abraham Accords↑ 98%M
middleeasteye.netNetanyahu says he wants broad coalition after Israel election↑ 83%MB
Marianna BelenkayaВыборы в Кнессет назначены на 27 октября↑ 80%L
lemonde.frIsraël : Benyamin Nétanyahou annonce être candidat aux prochaines élections législatives↑ 78%I
israelnationalnews.comNetanyahu hints he has chosen successor↑ 75%Won't happen (2)
Aaljazeera.com5↓ 81%
Could Israel’s coming election see an end to Netanyahu’s political career?↓ 62%Who is Israel’s new Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu?↑ 85%Netanyahu, the godfather of modern Israeli fascism↑ 54%Who are the ministers leading Israel’s new far-right government?↑ 50%Israel to hold national elections on October 27, parliament says–
+1 article matched but not used by the AI
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Forecast by Ori zimroni · opened May 19, 2026 · resolves Dec 31, 2026 · 2 forecasters · community consensus 60% · AI estimate 81% · open for forecasts.
Creation date
May 19, 2026, 05:08 PM UTC
Resolution date
Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC
Discussion (0)
No comments yet. Be the first to share your thoughts!