By 2026-12-31T23:59:59Z, the European Union will formally announce a new collective defense initiative or a new policy significantly enhancing its strategic autonomy.

"YES" if the European Council or European Commission formally announces a new, concrete initiative such as a new joint military force, a new common defense fund exceeding €20 billion, or a new treaty commitment to mutual defense that goes beyond existing NATO/EU frameworks, or a new policy explicitly designed to reduce reliance on non-EU powers in critical strategic sectors (e.g., defense industry, energy, technology) with a budget exceeding €20 billion. "NO" otherwise. Resolution will be based on official press releases, government statements, or reporting from major reputable news agencies (e.g., Reuters, AP, BBC, CNN, Politico Europe).