What are the chances that Egypt will join the Abraham Accords by January 1st, 2030?

As of Oct 3, 2026: the evidence estimate is 34%; the community estimate is 49%.

Dec 31, 2029

Community 49%

Egypt will join the Abraham Accords by January 1st, 2030.

CreatedCreation date

Jul 15, 2026Jul 15, 2026, 04:13 PM UTC

ResolvesResolution date

Dec 31, 2029Dec 31, 2029, 11:59 PM UTC

Context

The Abraham Accords are a series of normalization agreements between Israel and various Arab nations, initiated in 2020.…

The Abraham Accords are a series of normalization agreements between Israel and various Arab nations, initiated in 2020. Egypt was one of the first Arab nations to sign a peace treaty with Israel in 1979, long before the Abraham Accords.

Evidence estimate

Oracul

36%± 41%

TruthMachine Oracle (admin re-publish from pool) · 2 articles

Community 49%

You 50%

AI 34%

includes time-remaining adjustment — deadline in 1177 days

Forecasts History

Will happen2

Kobi Kai CalevAuthor

69%

komapc

54%

Won't happen1

Lev Kan

25%

Sources behind the evidence estimate(3 publications)

Publications that fed the Oracul, shown as voters — each takes a side on the claim by the stance of its reporting.

Press lean43% · will

Will happen (1)

hurriyetdailynews.comErdoğan says Egypt could join regional defense pact - Türkiye News↑ 68%

Won't happen (2)

ynet.co.ilהחשש המצרי - והתקיפה בנמל שנעדרה משערי העיתונים↓ 33%

Marianna BelenkayaСкончался сенатор Линдси Грэм - большой друг Израиля и один из тех, кто мог влиять на Трампа.↓ 30%

Discussion (0)

No comments yet. Be the first to share your thoughts!

Forecast by Kobi Kai Calev · opened Jul 15, 2026 · resolves Dec 31, 2029 · 3 forecasters · community consensus 49% · evidence estimate 34% · open for forecasts.

Author

Kobi Kai CalevELO 1500

Creation date

Jul 15, 2026, 04:13 PM UTC

Resolution date

Dec 31, 2029, 11:59 PM UTC

Discussion (0)

No comments yet. Be the first to share your thoughts!