What are the chances that Telegram will be unblocked in Russia by the end of October 2026?

As of Oct 5, 2026: the evidence estimate is 11%; the community estimate is 22%.

Oct 31, 2026

Community 22%

Telegram will be unblocked in Russia by the end of October 2026.

CreatedCreation date

Mar 27, 2026Mar 27, 2026, 05:01 PM UTC

ResolvesResolution date

Oct 31, 2026Oct 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC

Context

Recent reports confirm a strong decrease in Telegram traffic as of late March 2026, following Roskomnadzor's "slowing down" process initiated in February.…

Recent reports confirm a strong decrease in Telegram traffic as of late March 2026, following Roskomnadzor's "slowing down" process initiated in February. Meanwhile, WhatsApp experienced a mass failure on March 15, 2026, but has since partially recovered, with users again able to send messages and media.

Last updated: Mar 29, 2026, 12:15 PM UTC

Based on

cybersport.metaratings.ru

Evidence estimate

Oracul

34%± 42%

TruthMachine Oracle (admin re-publish from pool) · 13 articles

Community 22%

You 50%

AI 11%

includes time-remaining adjustment — deadline in 27 days

Forecasts History

Will happen0

—

Won't happen2

komapc

Polina BerAuthor

35%

Sources behind the evidence estimate(13 publications)

Publications that fed the Oracul, shown as voters — each takes a side on the claim by the stance of its reporting.

Press lean31% · will

Won't happen (6)

meduza.io417–65%↓ 17%

ФСБ обвинила Павла Дурова в содействии терроризму, его объявят в международный розыск — Meduza↓ 17%Основатель «Царьграда» Константин Малофеев призвал разблокировать телеграм (а потом заняться войной и разбомбить Киев) — Meduza↑ 65%Росфинмониторинг: ограничения против Дурова не распространяются на Telegram — Meduza–В Минцифры заявили, что не планируют вводить плату за иностранный интернет-трафик (в том числе на VPN) — Meduza–

bbc.com318–50%↓ 20%

Quién es Pavel Durov, el fundador de Telegram contra el que Rusia emitió una orden de arresto internacional - BBC News Mundo↓ 20%ماذا بعد اتهام روسيا لمؤسس تيليغرام بـ"تسهيل الإرهاب"؟ - BBC News عربي↓ 18%Чем рискуют российские пользователи Telegram из-за «дела Дурова» - BBC News Русская служба–

tagesschau.de214–25%↓ 14%

Russland schreibt Telegram-Gründer Pawel Durow zur Fahndung aus↓ 14%Russland: Nach Durow fahnden und Telegram weiter einschränken?↓ 25%

pravda.com.ua213–50%↓ 13%

Russia adds Telegram founder Pavel Durov to "terrorists and extremists" list↓ 13%Russian MP says Telegram should be unblocked after sanctions target state-run Max–

dw.comAustralia sues Telegram for not removing 'terrorist content'↓ 20%

novayagazeta.euRussia issues international arrest warrant for Telegram founder Pavel Durov — Novaya Gazeta Europe↓ 16%

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Forecast by Polina Ber · opened Mar 27, 2026 · resolves Oct 31, 2026 · 2 forecasters · community consensus 22% · evidence estimate 11% · open for forecasts.

Author

Polina BerELO 1509

Creation date

Mar 27, 2026, 05:01 PM UTC

Resolution date

Oct 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC

Discussion (0)

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