Mar 31, 2027
Community 84%
The Russian economy will experience a larger budget deficit as a percentage of GDP in 2026 compared to 2025, as reported by March 31, 2027.
CreatedCreation date
Apr 16, 2026Apr 16, 2026, 11:55 AM UTC
ResolvesResolution date
Mar 31, 2027Mar 31, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC
Recent reports indicate Russia's budget is under growing strain from the war, with a potential banking crisis emerging from mounting debt. Ukrainian attacks have led to a 3% cut in Russian oil output forecasts and severe domestic fuel shortages due to reduced refining capacity, prompting a diesel export ban. These developments suggest potential impacts on Russia's revenue streams and increased domestic economic pressures.
Community 84%
You 50%
AI 78%
Probability over time
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Forecasts History
Will happen4
Won't happen0
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Sources behind the AI estimate(71 publications)
Publications that fed the Oracle, shown as voters — each takes a side on the claim by the stance of its reporting.
Press lean79% · will
Press leans toward 'will happen' · 79%Will happen (23)
Mmeduza.io16↑ 89%
Власти так и не придумали, как найти деньги на войну, — и решили просто выходить за рамки бюджета. Пострадают частный бизнес и россияне. Александра Прокопенко — о финансовой эрозии режима — Meduza↑ 78%Путин поручил «упростить условия» для малого и среднего бизнеса в России — Meduza↑ 68%Опрос Gallup: 60% россиян заявили об ухудшении экономической ситуации. Это рекорд за 20 лет — Meduza↑ 72%The Bell: проблемы с топливом есть в 53 регионах России — Meduza↑ 65%Росстат: бензин за июнь подорожал на 6,9%, дизель — на 7,1% — Meduza↑ 59%Бензиновый кризис в России обретает угрожающие масштабы. И остановить его, похоже, может только Украина. Как скоро топлива может перестать хватать по всей стране? — Meduza↑ 57%Насколько все подорожает из-за топливного кризиса? И какие еще проблемы в экономике он обострил? Масштаб этих проблем, похоже, полностью зависит от возможностей ВСУ продолжать удары по НПЗ и другим объектам — Meduza↑ 61%Россия резко увеличила импорт авиационного керосина из Беларуси — Meduza↑ 56%Путину доложили о «непростой» ситуации с топливом. Он сказал, что кризис не повлияет на войну — Meduza↑ 60%В правительстве признали: НПЗ выходят из строя из-за ударов Украины — Meduza↑ 50%Financial Times: топливный кризис напрямую затронул больше трети россиян — Meduza↑ 51%Производство бензина в России упало на 25% — Meduza↑ 45%Индекс Мосбиржи упал за день более чем на 4%. Это самое сильное падения с сентября 2022 года — Meduza↑ 45%У властей никак не получается справиться с бензиновым кризисом. Чем это грозит России? Цены растут, дефицит затрагивает все больше отраслей, а импорт топлива не спасает — Meduza↑ 43%В России ввели запрет на экспорт дизельного топлива — Meduza↑ 40%Похоже, последствия топливного кризиса в России — куда серьезнее, чем казалось в первые дни. Ваша привычная жизнь уже изменилась? Как именно? Расскажите «Медузе» — Meduza↑ 38%
Kkyivpost.com6↑ 84%
Russia Reaches Less Than 50% of 409,000 Troop Recruitment Target by July, Kyiv Says↑ 68%Putin Just GUTTED Russia to Keep His War Alive↑ 65%Russia is Fracturing From Within (And Putin Can’t Stop It)↑ 53%For the First Time, Millions of Russians Are Feeling the War in Their Everyday Lives↑ 57%Russian Teachers Assigned to Gas Stations to Monitor Queues and Manage Drivers↑ 61%ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 10, 2026↑ 50%
Ppravda.com.ua5↑ 90%
Russia's budget deficit to exceed forecasts by almost US$13 billion – Reuters↑ 79%Russia to import diesel fuel while subsidising traders↑ 43%Russia bans diesel exports and starts fuel imports↑ 50%Belarusian fuel supplies to Russia reached record high in June↑ 50%Russia admits fuel shortage in country for first time: in June, officials said everything was fine↑ 40%
Aaljazeera.com5↑ 83%
Petrol shortages and ‘oil rain’ bring Ukraine war home to Moscow↑ 65%Will economic pressure move the Kremlin towards talks with Kyiv?↑ 60%How severe is Russia’s energy shortage because of Ukrainian strikes?↑ 55%‘The crisis is deep’: The view from Russia as fuel shortages worsen↑ 48%Why have half a million Russians gone bankrupt amid Ukraine war?↑ 45%
ECEdy Cohen5↑ 82%
https://www.c14.co.il/article/1621421↑ 64%https://www.c14.co.il/article/1622133↑ 62%Trump on the Russia sanctions bill: "This is in honor of Lindsey. This was his thing... and there's a good chance that it gets done, but they'd like to add Iran and they'd like to add Hezbollah to it.↑ 57%https://www.c14.co.il/article/1626140↑ 61%מבזק–
Ffortune.com4↑ 84%
The end of Putin’s regime will spring from war spending chaos, former central bank advisor says, amid military mutiny threat and fuel-shortage brawls | Fortune↑ 68%Russia’s economy is an 'illusion' built on debt, and a banking crisis is ready to explode, intel report says, while the Kremlin may seize pensions | Fortune↑ 59%Putin is pushing Russia into an 'economic, political, and military abyss,' think tank says | Fortune↑ 65%A viral critique of Russia's wartime society spoke for a record-breaking number of Russians | Fortune↑ 50%
Tthemoscowtimes.com4↑ 83%
Russian Government Weighs Total Ban on Diesel Exports - The Moscow Times↑ 66%Putin Admits Ukrainian Strikes Driving Fuel Shortages - The Moscow Times↑ 40%Could Russia's Wartime Debt Boom Trigger a Banking Crisis? - The Moscow Times↑ 45%As Wartime Slump Deepens, Russia’s Construction Sector Is on Shaky Ground - The Moscow Times↑ 40%
Ffinance.yahoo.com3↑ 95%
Russia's 2026 budget deficit may exceed plans by $12.85 billion due to higher spending↑ 90%Russia’s economy is ‘sputtering,’ and Putin’s wartime spending model has pushed the country to an ‘economic, political, and military abyss’↑ 63%Half a million Russians go bankrupt as Putin risks banking crisis↑ 49%
Aaljazeera.net3↑ 88%
Ssemafor.com3↑ 82%
Yyahoo.com2↑ 86%
Ooilprice.com2↑ 83%
Ttimesofindia.indiatimes.com2↑ 82%
Bbbc.com2↑ 80%
N
novayagazeta.euSqueezing the elites. Under the guise of ‘anti-corruption’, the Kremlin is using a new wave of property seizures to bring officials to heel — Novaya Gazeta Europe↑ 89%T
tagesschau.dePutins kurze Atempause: Warum Russlands Kriegswirtschaft wieder unter Druck gerät↑ 85%L
lemonde.frVladimir Poutine, la tentation de la fuite en avant↑ 81%C
cnbc.comPutin details Russia’s fuel shortages after Ukrainian drone strikes↑ 80%E
euobserver.comRussian oil industry set back 20 years by Ukrainian strikes (Ukraine Battlefield update: Day 1,602)↑ 78%D
dw.comGas queues grow as Ukraine targets Russia's fuel supply↑ 78%J
jamestown.orgStrategic Snapshot: Russian Oil Woes Reinforce Economic Troubles - Jamestown↑ 77%I
independent.co.ukPutin has admitted Russia is facing issues in Ukraine war - is he cracking?↑ 76%T
thehill.comWar-weary Russia is falling apart↑ 65%Discussion (0)
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Forecast by andrey1bar · opened Apr 16, 2026 · resolves Mar 31, 2027 · 4 forecasters · community consensus 84% · AI estimate 78% · open for forecasts.
Creation date
Apr 16, 2026, 11:55 AM UTC
Resolution date
Mar 31, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC
Discussion (0)
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