Outcome reported — awaiting resolution· Commitments are closed
Dec 31, 2026
Community 50%
The U.S. will formally approve an F-35 sale to Turkey by December 31, 2026.
CreatedCreation date
Jul 7, 2026Jul 7, 2026, 06:49 PM UTC
ResolvesResolution date
Dec 31, 2026Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC
U.S. President Donald Trump has recently indicated he will lift sanctions on Turkey and is considering or signaling support for restoring Turkey's access to the F-35 fighter jet program. This development follows Turkey's removal from the program due to its acquisition of Russian S-400 missile defense systems. Trump's statements were made during meetings with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan at a NATO summit in Ankara.
Community 50%
You 50%
AI 3%
includes time-remaining adjustment — deadline in 178 days
Probability over time
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Sources behind the AI estimate(12 publications)
Publications that fed the Oracle, shown as voters — each takes a side on the claim by the stance of its reporting.
Press lean62% · will
Press leans toward 'will happen' · 62%Will happen (6)
Aaa.com.tr2↑ 83%
Jjpost.com2↑ 77%
I
israelnationalnews.comTrump on F-35 sale: 'Turkey has been more loyal than other countries'↑ 85%A
aljazeera.comTrump says will lift sanctions on Turkiye, ‘consider’ selling F-35s↑ 81%T
twz.com↑ 78%T
timesofindia.indiatimes.comDonald Trump Turkey F-35: Donald Trump may allow Turkey back into F-35 fighter jet programme: Report - The Times of India↑ 77%Discussion (0)
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Forecast by komapc · opened Jul 7, 2026 · resolves Dec 31, 2026 · 0 forecasters · AI estimate 3% · open for forecasts.
Author
K
komapcAReputation 145Creation date
Jul 7, 2026, 06:49 PM UTC
Resolution date
Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC
Discussion (0)
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