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DAATAN
Jul 31, 2026
Community 48%

Ukraine will obtain more territory than it loses in its ongoing war with Russia by July 31, 2026.

Created
Jun 3, 2026
Resolves
Jul 31, 2026
Tags
ConflictGeopoliticsEurope
Recent developments indicate Ukrainian strikes are causing widespread fuel rationing in Russia, while Ukraine has secured 4 billion euros in new military aid, including anti-ballistic interceptors and long-range weapons. Concurrently, Ukrainian forces are pressing an offensive in the south, specifically targeting Kherson, a provincial capital under Russian control since the early days of the invasion.
50%You
Community 48%
You 50%
AI 59%

includes time-remaining adjustment — deadline in 11 days

Probability over time

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Forecasts History

Will happen1
A
andrey1barAuthor
75%
Won't happen1
DM
Dmitri Mariengof
20%

Sources behind the AI estimate(121 publications)

Publications that fed the Oracle, shown as voters — each takes a side on the claim by the stance of its reporting.

Press lean66% · will
Press leans toward 'will happen' · 66%

Will happen (21)

K
kyivpost.com31↑ 88%
Ukrainian Defense Forces Disable 43% of Russia’s Total Oil Refining Capacity↑ 76%US Aides Ukraine's Deep Strikes, Kremlin Ordered Media Blackout as Russia's Offensive Stalls↑ 72%Zelensky Says Ukraine's Drone Warfare, Battlefield Experience Make It a Future NATO Powerhouse↑ 75%Syrsky Says Russia's 2026 Offensive Failed Despite Nearly 2-to-1 Troop Advantage↑ 72%Putin Just GUTTED Russia to Keep His War Alive↑ 63%Ukraine Hits Russian Airbase in Crimea and Bridges in Major Strike↑ 70%The US’ PAC-3 Missile Is Too Costly and Produced Too Slowly for Ukraine’s War With Russia↑ 67%Banks, Drone Makers, Energy Firms Sign Deals Exceeding $10B at Ukraine Recovery Conference in Gdańsk↑ 67%NATO Eyes €140B Ukraine Pledge While Elevating Kyiv to Security Contributor Status↑ 67%Russia is Fracturing From Within (And Putin Can’t Stop It)↑ 60%Ukraine to Get France’s Top-End Rafale Fighter Jets, SCALP Missiles, Hammer Bombs↑ 63%Ukraine Asks Allies to Lend Patriot Missiles Until New Deliveries Arrive↑ 67%Russia Reaches Less Than 50% of 409,000 Troop Recruitment Target by July, Kyiv Says↑ 65%Is Ukraine About to Cut Off Russia’s Land Bridge Between Crimea and the Mainland?↑ 60%ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 13, 2026↑ 60%Zelensky: Ukraine Can Sustain Higher High-Tech Weapons Output Than Russia↑ 68%Ukraine Plans New Air Defense Measures for Sumy, Region Hit Over 12,000 Times This Year↓ 50%UN Says 293 Civilians Killed in Ukraine in June, Highest Toll Since April 2022↓ 44%Ukrainian Drones are Striking Tankers and Torching Trucks in Crimea↑ 47%Empty Pumps, Fewer Interceptors: Russia’s War Economy Cracks↑ 50%Ukraine Signs Drone Cooperation Deals With Estonia, Netherlands – Canada, Finland Next↑ 53%Russia’s 11-Time-Zone War Just Backfired↑ 41%Ukraine Wins Patriot Production Deal While NATO Pledges €70 Billion in Long-Term Military Aid↓ 45%Ukraine’s Long-Range Sanctions Against Russian Oil and Gas Need Europe’s Support↑ 35%ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 16, 2026↑ 33%ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 8, 2026–ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 15, 2026–Ukraine Emerges as a Guarantor of European Security at Ankara NATO Summit–ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 12, 2026–Ukraine's Battlefield Gains Strengthen Zelensky Ahead of Trump Meeting–ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 14, 2026–
GB
Guy Bechor16↑ 88%
This is Vivian Silver. ↑ 76%https://www.c14.co.il/article/1621421↑ 73%U.S. strikes reportedly killed the IRGC Chief at an underground command center.↑ 72%דיווחים על פיצוצים בבנדר עבאס שבדרום המדינה - שעות אחרי איומי טראמפ לתקוף שוב הלילה↑ 68%עיירת האויב בנת ג'בייל, בשטח הצפוני החדש שלנו, לא נראית משהו. יותר מזה - היא כבר לא קיימת.↑ 68%КСИР заявил, что атаковал и уничтожил базу американских ракет наземного базирования в Кувейте.↑ 69%A radical Islamic scholar was just caught on video saying: "Christians and Jews are monkeys and pigs to us... to make it easier for us to kill them." ↑ 67%ארה"ב חושפת שימוש ראשון בכשב"מים, סירות מתאבדות שלה, מול יעדי האויב האיראני, ואנחנו צריכים לייצר סירות כאלה ביצור המוני, למכירה בכל העולם, אבל עם תחכום.↑ 67%מעודכנים לשלשום..↑ 63%BREAKING: A statement posted on Senator Lindsey Graham's official X account says that he has passed away!!↑ 62%Ukrainian forces reportedly shot down a Russian Su-35 in the Zaporizhzhia region.↓ 50%Iranian state agency Tasnim and IRGC-linked channels announced Iran has cancelled the memorandum of understanding. ↓ 45%בעקבות חסימת יצוא הנפט האיראני חדש:↓ 35%הלם אצל הערבים: זינוק אדיר של היהודים במה שהיה פעם "מזרח ירושלים". כיום 240,000 יהודים לעומת 390,000 ערבים. ↑ 30%Iran's IRGC declares all US bases in the region "legitimate targets," claims coordinated strikes on Gulf installations–Трамп: По моему мнению, меморандум о взаимопонимании с Ираном больше не действует.↑ 25%
P
pravda.com.ua12↑ 86%
Zelenskyy says "battle in the sky" will be decisive in war against Russia↑ 72%Ukraine’s commander-in-chief: pace of Russian advance has more than halved↑ 75%Concrete decisions reached on strengthening Ukraine's air defence and anti-ballistic capabilities, Ukrainian foreign minister says↑ 72%US helping Ukraine bypass Russian air defences: strikes on refineries up elevenfold – FT↑ 69%Senior NATO official does not believe Russia will capture all of Donbas by end of 2027↑ 63%Zelenskyy says when Ukraine could start producing missiles for Patriot systems↑ 70%Russian military advance rate has fallen fourfold, senior NATO official says↓ 65%CIA director: Russian soldier in Ukraine survives an average of 30 minutes↑ 43%Ukrainian forces struck over 200,000 Russian military assets in June, defence minister reports – video↑ 40%Russia loses 1,470 soldiers over past day↑ 40%Russia loses 1,600 soldiers over past day↑ 35%Russia loses 1,290 soldiers and over 500 pieces of equipment over past day↑ 33%
M
meduza.io7↑ 86%
Война. 1590-й день. Россия после атаки на Москву ударила по Киеву. Разрушены 20 жилых домов, погибли более 10 человек, около 90 ранены — Meduza↑ 72%Путин объявил о захвате Константиновки. Украинское командование настаивает на том, что город контролируют ВСУ. А как на самом деле? Карта боев на 8 июля — Meduza↓ 70%Зеленский: власти России «бредят» о Донбассе. С начала войны они, по его словам, 15 раз переносили крайний срок захвата региона — Meduza↓ 60%ВСУ научились не только прорывать ПВО вокруг Москвы, но и бить по тылу ВС РФ — в сотне километров от фронта. Мы изучили тысячи геолокаций ударов по бензовозам на трассе в Крым и другим целям. Вот что показал этот анализ — Meduza↑ 40%Война. 1580-й день. Зеленский грозит России ударами за три тысячи километров от границы — и предупреждает Лукашенко — Meduza↑ 33%Война. 1600-й день. «Война перешла в фазу дипстрайков и мидлстрайков» — советник министра обороны Украины Бескрестнов. По его мнению, Россия будет «атаковать все, что возможно» — Meduza–Война. 1591-й день. Украина проводит «операцию возмездия» в Крыму — Meduza–
A
aljazeera.com7↑ 85%
Ukraine ‘cuts off’ Crimea from Russia, plunging it into an energy crisis↑ 70%Russia’s advance collapses in Ukraine, ‘40,000’ troops killed in June↑ 68%As Ukraine seizes ‘chance to win’, the horrors of war come home to Russia↑ 57%Ukraine decimates Russian logistics, bringing chaos to Crimea↑ 47%Why is Crimea critical to the Russia–Ukraine war?↑ 40%Ukraine chokes fuel to Crimea, Russian consumers, targeting military supply↑ 47%Trump grants Kyiv Patriots licences: What’s next in the Russia-Ukraine war?↑ 35%
E
euobserver.com7↑ 83%
[Interview] Ukrainian military expert: Russian air defence is in a catastrophic state – and the pressure will keep growing↑ 65%Listen: Is Ukraine gaining the upper hand against Russia?↑ 44%Ukraine’s new French and Swedish jets will pose threat to Russia’s top warplanes (Ukraine Battlefield update: Day 1,605)↓ 35%Ukrainians no longer need expensive Western missiles to blow up bridges in Russian occupied territories (Ukraine Battlefield update, Day 1,589)–Russia running out of missiles, had to skimp on defence of a nuclear‑submarine base (Ukraine Battlefield update: Day 1,603)–Without Patriots, Ukraine turns to drones and jamming against Russian Iskanders (Ukraine battlefield update, day 1,598)–Ukrainian drones are wiping out Russian tankers in the Sea of Azov (Ukraine Battlefield update, Day 1,595)–
J
jamestown.org5↑ 85%
Russia Intensifies Strikes and Bluster as War Against Ukraine Falters  - Jamestown↑ 69%Ukraine’s Expanding Strike Campaign Undercuts Putin’s Claims of Steady Progress - Jamestown↑ 56%Strategic Snapshot: Ukrainian Drone Mastery Changing War’s Tide  - Jamestown↑ 48%Strategic Snapshot: Russian Oil Woes Reinforce Economic Troubles - Jamestown↑ 35%Ukraine Ramps Up Drone Strikes in the Sea of Azov and Black Sea - Jamestown–
L
lemonde.fr4↑ 85%
EN DIRECT, guerre en Ukraine : Kiev a lancé une attaque de drones sur la Russie↑ 70%EN DIRECT, guerre en Ukraine : plusieurs explosions secouent Kiev, attaque à Kharkiv↑ 58%EN DIRECT, guerre en Ukraine : le point sur la situation↑ 50%EN DIRECT, guerre en Ukraine : après la pire attaque russe sur Kiev depuis le début du conflit, Volodymyr Zelensky promet une riposte–
Y
yahoo.com4↑ 84%
American-made technology guiding Ukraine's strikes into Russia↑ 67%Bloodier than Stalingrad: Number of casualties in Russia’s war on Ukraine reaches 2 million↑ 50%Ukrainian midrange drones reshape the battlefield by targeting Russian supply lines↑ 50%Putin’s false claim of the capture of one Ukrainian town exposes the slow pace of Russia’s bloody advance–
C
cnbc.com3↑ 84%
Ukraine’s drone playbook is wreaking havoc in Russia — and upending where NATO wants to invest↑ 68%Ukraine has already won the war against Russia, Finnish president tells CNBC↑ 40%Ukraine is raising the cost of war for Russia — and testing Putin's resolve–
D
dw.comTrump signals support for Patriot production in Ukraine↑ 88%
S
semafor.comRussia retaliates with Ukraine strikes↑ 83%
B
bbc.comНаступил ли перелом в войне России с Украиной? - BBC News Русская служба↑ 83%
F
foreignpolicy.comUkraine Isn’t Waiting Around for Patriots↑ 82%
L
lowyinstitute.orgRussia-Ukraine: Has the tide really turned?↑ 81%
D
defensenews.comRussian troops survive just 20-30 minutes on Ukraine’s front lines, CIA director says↑ 80%
T
thehill.comLosing in Ukraine, is Putin finally down to his nukes?↑ 80%
A
atlanticcouncil.orgWith Putin visibly weakened, now is the time to back Ukraine↑ 79%
U
understandingwar.orgUkraine’s Intermediate-Range Strike Campaign and New Mechanized Attacks Herald the Start of a New Phase of the War↑ 78%
F
foreignaffairs.comPutin Will Turn a Cease-Fire Into a Weapon↑ 76%
T
timesofindia.indiatimes.comRussian recruits survive just 20-30 minutes on Ukraine frontlines: CIA chief explains why - The Times of India↑ 75%

Won't happen (4)

A
aljazeera.net5↓ 91%
من النفط إلى القمح.. كيف غيّرت حملة زيلينسكي الضربات الأوكرانية الروسية؟↓ 82%تقرير أمريكي: مليونان بين قتيل وجريح بصفوف قوات روسيا وأوكرانيا↓ 65%ما الإستراتيجية التي تعتمدها أوكرانيا لاستنزاف روسيا؟↓ 68%من المسيّرات إلى حرب العقول.. ماذا نتعلم من حرب أوكرانيا؟↓ 43%كييف تراهن على استنزاف موسكو اقتصاديا وعسكريا↑ 35%
I
independent.co.uk5↓ 84%
Ukraine war live: Putin orders fresh plan to seize Kyiv, says Ukraine military chief↓ 68%How Ukraine’s drone campaign sparked a fuel crisis 3,500km behind enemy lines↑ 60%Putin knows he’s in trouble. It’s time to kick him while he’s down↑ 68%Half a million dead but minor territorial gains: Putin’s devastating war in numbers↑ 66%Russian soldiers ‘surviving just 20 minutes on frontline due to drone attacks’↑ 39%
W
warontherocks.com2↓ 80%
A Return to Mass: Russian Force Expansion in the War with Ukraine↓ 60%Building a Better Ukraine Requires Accessibility Reforms↓ 40%
A
aa.com.tr2↓ 70%
Russia claims capture another settlement as Ukraine strikes industrial, energy infrastructure↓ 40%Ukraine says it sees ‘concrete results’ on bolstering air defenses at NATO summit–

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Forecast by andrey1bar · opened Jun 3, 2026 · resolves Jul 31, 2026 · 2 forecasters · community consensus 48% · AI estimate 59% · open for forecasts.