A federal bill explicitly preempting state AI laws is enacted by the U.S. Congress by August 31, 2026.

What are the chances that A federal bill explicitly preempting state AI laws is enacted by the U.S. Congress by August 31, 2026? As of Aug 20, 2026: the AI estimate is 32%. · Updated Aug 20, 2026

CreatedCreation date

Aug 6, 2026Aug 6, 2026, 06:49 AM UTC

ResolvesResolution date

Aug 31, 2026Aug 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC

Sources behind the AI estimate(18 publications)

Publications that fed the Oracle, shown as voters — each takes a side on the claim by the stance of its reporting.

Press lean53% · will

Will happen (7)

cnbc.com450–68%↑ 68%

'AI Kill Switch' bill needs to be passed this year amid ongoing rogue agent hacks, Rep. Lieu says↑ 68%Lawmakers probe growing use of Chinese AI models in U.S. companies↑ 68%OpenAI's Hugging Face hack triggers 'AI Kill Switch' bill in Congress↑ 64%The White House is dictating access to frontier AI models, shifting power from tech giants–

thehill.com250–67%↑ 67%

House considering bipartisan ‘kill switch’ bill to regulate AI↑ 67%Lieu bashes GOP colleagues for strategy on AI–

arstechnica.comAI Kill Switch Act would let Trump admin order shutdown of rogue AI systems↑ 67%

bbc.comПочему ИИ-сообщество просит притормозить разработку искусственного интеллекта - BBC News Русская служба↑ 66%

theguardian.comBernie Sanders calls on Silicon Valley to ‘pause AI development’ in interest of humanity↑ 65%

tomshardware.comKill switches for most powerful AI models proposed by Bipartisan bill — DHS could order throttling or full shutdown, with fines up to $20 million per day↑ 64%

semafor.comUS lawmakers propose AI ‘kill switch’ bill↑ 63%

Won't happen (4)

aljazeera.com227–50%↓ 27%

White House to meet AI firms on advanced model safety↓ 27%What is the AI Kill Switch Act proposed in the US and how will it work?–

fortune.com225–50%↓ 25%

Congress needs an AI framework now | Fortune↓ 25%OpenAI’s rogue hacking incident was a warning shot. Will it be a wake-up call to finally create AI safety regulation? | Fortune–

independent.co.uk222–68%↓ 22%

Deepfake porn survivor lashes out over Republicans sitting on AOC’s AI crimes bill↓ 22%OpenAI needs AI ‘kill switch’ after model goes rogue, US lawmakers say↑ 68%

foreignpolicy.comA Patchwork Approach to AI Regulation Is Best—for Now↓ 25%

Author·

komapcA·Reputation 104

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Forecast by komapc · opened Aug 6, 2026 · resolves Aug 31, 2026 · 0 forecasters · AI estimate 32% · open for forecasts.

Author

komapcAReputation 104

Creation date

Aug 6, 2026, 06:49 AM UTC

Resolution date

Aug 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC

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No comments yet. Be the first to share your thoughts!