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DAATAN
Jul 23, 2026
Community 70%

A direct military confrontation between Israel and Iran will resume by July 23, 2026.

Created
Jul 21, 2026
Resolves
Jul 23, 2026
Tags
ConflictGeopoliticsMiddle East
The United States and Iran are currently in a renewed military confrontation, with American airstrikes and Iranian responses occurring for over a week. While Israel is preparing for possible involvement in the broader regional conflict, according to reports, senior Israeli officials are exercising restraint and are not rushing to initiate a direct confrontation with Iran, awaiting a specific trigger or American guidance.
50%You
Community 70%
You 50%
AI 63%

includes time-remaining adjustment — deadline in 3 days

Probability over time

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Forecasts History

Will happen1
A
andrey1barAuthor
70%
Won't happen0

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Sources behind the AI estimate(8 publications)

Publications that fed the Oracle, shown as voters — each takes a side on the claim by the stance of its reporting.

Press lean64% · will
Press leans toward 'will happen' · 64%

Will happen (4)

KS
Kirill Semenov2↑ 85%
Escalation with Iran - Senior Israeli officials: A full-scale war with Iran is possible in the coming days.↑ 70%🖤На фоне нынешнего витка эскалации у Тель-Авива вновь появляется шанс сделать ее необратимой и затянуть регион в воронку конфронтации.↑ 50%
A
aljazeera.net2↑ 80%
عقب ضربات أمريكا الأخيرة.. إسرائيل تتأهب لرد إيراني وسط تقديرات بمواجهة "حتمية"↑ 59%أين إسرائيل من التصعيد الأمريكي الحالي على إيران؟↓ 63%
Y
ynetnews.comIsrael holds fire, waits on Trump before joining another Iran campaign: ‘If he wants us, we’ll join’↑ 80%
J
jpost.comIsrael prepared for renewed fighting with Iran | The Jerusalem Post↑ 78%

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Forecast by andrey1bar · opened Jul 21, 2026 · resolves Jul 23, 2026 · 1 forecaster · community consensus 70% · AI estimate 63% · open for forecasts.