A high-intensity military conflict will resume between Iran and US/allied forces by early May 2026, and the Strait of Hormuz will be open to international shipping by mid-May 2026.
Iran has recently closed the Strait of Hormuz again, with reports of ships being attacked, according to the Revolutionary Guard. This follows an announcement by US President Trump on April 12, 2026, that the US Navy would immediately begin a blockade of the strait after Iran's refusal to abandon its nuclear program. These events indicate a significant escalation of tensions and military posturing in the region.
