Between April 15, 2026, and April 22, 2026, no international commercial passenger flights to or from Israel will be canceled specifically due to the conflict with Iran.
Resolution
Resolved as wrong on Apr 28, 2026
Multiple sources confirm that international commercial passenger flights to or from Israel were canceled between April 15, 2026, and April 22, 2026, specifically due to the conflict with Iran. The 'gulfbusiness' article dated April 18, 2026, states that an Israeli carrier canceled flights departing Israel through April 18. The 'businessinsider' article dated April 22, 2026, explicitly links flight cancellations to the 'US and Israeli war on Iran'. Furthermore, a Reuters article URL dated April 21, 2026, directly mentions 'airlines cancel flights after us-israel-strikes-iran'. These cancellations contradict the forecast claim that no such cancellations would occur.
- https://gulfbusiness.com/en/2026/aviation/middle-east-flight-delays-airlines-list-2026/
- https://www.businessinsider.com/airlines-cancel-flights-rising-jet-fuel-prices-shortage-iran-2026-4
- https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/airlines-cancel-flights-after-us-israel-strikes-iran-2026-04-21/
Probability over time
Forecasts History
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Forecast by komapc · opened Apr 14, 2026 · resolves Apr 22, 2026 · 3 forecasters · community consensus 71% · AI estimate 65% · resolved wrong.
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