Dec 31, 2027
Community 50%
By December 31, 2027, at least 20% of global programmer jobs will have been replaced by AI.
CreatedCreation date
Apr 1, 2026Apr 1, 2026, 05:11 PM UTC
ResolvesResolution date
Dec 31, 2027Dec 31, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC
The rapid advancement of AI, particularly in code generation and debugging, has sparked widespread debate about its potential impact on the programming profession. While some experts predict significant job displacement, others argue that AI will augment human programmers, creating new roles and increasing productivity rather than outright replacing a large percentage of the workforce.
Community 50%
You 50%
AI 64%
Probability over time
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Forecasts History
Will happen1
Evgeny Ber
60%
Won't happen1
K
komapc
40%
Sources behind the AI estimate(41 publications)
Publications that fed the Oracle, shown as voters — each takes a side on the claim by the stance of its reporting.
Press lean52% · will
Press leans toward 'will happen' · 52%Will happen (6)
Ffinance.yahoo.com25↑ 90%
Wall Street Thinks AI Is Slowing. Wall Street Is Wrong↑ 80%AI skills now listed in 73% of tech job postings↑ 70%AI blamed for 21,000 layoffs at tech giant↑ 56%As AI’s role expands, the customer service labor market contracts↑ 62%Every major tech layoff in 2026 that has name-checked AI↓ 66%Goldman Sachs sends strong wake-up call on American jobs↑ 64%Tech accounts for nearly a third of US layoffs in H1: Challenger↑ 50%Broken recruiting processes block AI gains, survey shows↓ 66%Study: AI Is Actually Creating More Jobs, Not Killing Them (But There’s a Catch)↑ 46%The economy is shutting young adults out of career-entry jobs, analysis finds↓ 60%77% of companies are pushing AI on workers — employment lawyers say you have almost no right to refuse↓ 56%Companies are hiring for something AI can't do, a review of millions of job listings found↓ 63%Oracle layoffs: 21,000 jobs cut, software giant trades human talent for AI tech amid the SaaSpocalypse↑ 60%US employers announced 97,000 job cuts in May — and AI was blamed for 40% of them↑ 60%In The AI Era, Workforce Transformation Never Stops. Use These 5 Steps To Keep Up↑ 54%Is the AI Bubble About to Burst?↓ 50%AI Startups Hire a Specific Type of Employee. Do You Fit the Mold?↓ 80%Creative Destruction, Momentum, SpaceX↑ 40%Companies are buying AI tools. That doesn't mean they know what to do with them.↓ 48%Good news, software developers: Job postings are ticking up post-Claude Code↑ 56%Will AI create new entry-level jobs?↑ 35%A top Goldman Sachs economist says AI will displace the jobs of 15 million US workers–AI isn’t killing jobs at these companies — it’s boosting hiring–Want an AI-proof job? New research says you may be safer at companies embracing the technology–The AI Layoff Headlines You Should Be Most Suspicious Of–
Ffortune.com7↑ 81%
'It's not going away': The Stanford economist who called the AI entry-level jobs crisis early has the receipts | Fortune↑ 62%I know how Gen Z can survive the ‘jobpocalypse’ because I built an AI company — in 2015 | Fortune↓ 66%CEO of $248 billion cybersecurity company says workers are about to face a ‘Darwinian moment’ thanks to AI: Evolve or get cut | Fortune↑ 64%U.S. emergency oil supplies are lower now than at any time since Reagan—and heading toward panic levels | Fortune↓ 50%AI start-ups are snubbing entry-level talent in favor of Silicon Valley men with top degrees, research shows | Fortune↓ 60%Gen Z’s hiring hell is real: 1 in 3 employers admit they’re replacing entry-level roles with AI—and tech and manufacturing jobs are most at risk | Fortune↑ 52%The most reassuring argument about AI and jobs quietly explains why Gen Z can't get one | Fortune↓ 52%
Ttechcrunch.com2↑ 74%
S
semafor.comDebatable: AI’s impact on the economy↑ 79%T
theguardian.comWomen and university graduates in Australia most at risk of losing jobs to AI, report finds↑ 79%T
timesofindia.indiatimes.comGoldman Sachs top economist agrees that millions of Americans will lose jobs to AI; but rejects the idea that these will be permanently wiped out; says these CEOs are ignoring that ...↑ 72%+6 articles matched but not used by the AI
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Forecast by Ilya Levin · opened Apr 1, 2026 · resolves Dec 31, 2027 · 2 forecasters · community consensus 50% · AI estimate 64% · open for forecasts.
Author
Ilya LevinReputation 100Creation date
Apr 1, 2026, 05:11 PM UTC
Resolution date
Dec 31, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC
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