Israel will carry out a new aerial attack on Iranian territory by October 27, 2026.

What are the chances that Israel will carry out a new aerial attack on Iranian territory by October 27, 2026? As of Aug 20, 2026: the AI estimate is 66%; the community estimate is 70%. · Updated Aug 20, 2026

The U.S. and Israel launched aerial attacks in Iran on February 28, 2026, which led to an Iranian response. This forecast examines whether Israel will conduct another aerial attack on Iranian territory by the specified date.

Israel will carry out a new aerial attack on Iranian territory by October 27, 2026.

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Sources behind the AI estimate(78 publications)

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