DAATANWhat are the chances that SpaceX Starship successfully orbits Earth in next launch? Unresolvable. · Updated Jun 23, 2026
The pool behind this number currently holds no usable evidence — every article gathered for this claim failed extraction or was set aside. The estimate stands until fresh evidence lands, but nothing here backs it.
Resolved as unresolvable on Jul 2, 2026
The forecast period includes a Starship launch on May 22, 2026 (Flight 12). According to UPI.com and Spacenews.com, this launch resulted in a 'mishap' and a 'booster failure' during its test flight. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) ordered an investigation into this incident. A booster failure during launch means the Starship vehicle did not complete at least one full orbit of Earth, nor could it achieve a successful controlled splashdown or landing. Therefore, the conditions for a 'YES' resolution were not met, and the forecast resolves to 'NO' (wrong). While another launch occurred on June 23, 2026, which experienced an early engine shutdown, the May 22nd launch clearly failed to meet the orbital success criteria.
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Publications that fed the Oracle, shown as voters — each takes a side on the claim by the stance of its reporting.
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Forecast by komapc · opened Feb 13, 2026 · resolves Jun 30, 2026 · 1 forecaster · community consensus 63% · AI estimate 67% · resolved unresolvable.
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