The conflict between Iran and its adversaries (e.g., US, Israel) will resume by April 23, 2026.

Resolution

Resolved as correct on Apr 28, 2026

The forecast is resolved 'Yes' because major military engagements involving Iran and its adversaries (US, Israel) were widely reported to have occurred during the forecast period (April 9 - April 23, 2026). Although a 'two-week ceasefire agreement' was reported by ACLEDdata on April 8, 2026, and Crisis Group noted on April 21, 2026, that the ceasefire was 'largely holding,' other reputable sources indicate ongoing significant conflict. Specifically, understandingwar.org's 'Iran Update Special Report' on April 24, 2026, explicitly states that its updates 'focus on US and Israeli strikes on Iran and Iran and the Axis of Resistance's response to the strikes' and that these updates 'cover events from' the period leading up to April 24. This indicates major military engagements. Furthermore, Wikipedia's '2026 Iran war' entry states that 'Since 28 February 2026, the United States and Israel have been engaged in an armed conflict with the country of Iran and its regional allies,' implying continuous conflict. Al Jazeera (April 26, 2026) also refers to an ongoing 'US-Israel war on Iran.' The occurrence of 'US and Israeli strikes' and 'Iran and the Axis of Resistance's response' constitutes major military engagements, fulfilling the 'Yes' condition for the resumption or continuation of conflict.