What are the chances that The death penalty will be fully abolished in Israel by May 18, 2031?

Name: The death penalty will be fully abolished in Israel by May 18, 2031.
Start: 2026-05-18T09:55:21.062Z
End: 2031-05-18T23:59:59.000Z
Location: DAATAN

As of Aug 17, 2026: the AI estimate is 54%; the community estimate is 64%.

DAATAN

The death penalty will be fully abolished in Israel by May 18, 2031.

May 18, 2031

Community 64%

The death penalty will be fully abolished in Israel by May 18, 2031.

CreatedCreation date

May 18, 2026May 18, 2026, 09:55 AM UTC

ResolvesResolution date

May 18, 2031May 18, 2031, 11:59 PM UTC

Forecasts History

Will happen1

andrey1bar

80%

Won't happen1

komapcAuthor

47%

Sources behind the AI estimate(4 publications)

Publications that fed the Oracle, shown as voters — each takes a side on the claim by the stance of its reporting.

Press lean47% · will

Will happen (2)

Ben Caspitאה, ושימו לב מה רשום בהמשך:↑ 73%

ynet.co.ilהיסטוריה בעולם הערבי: לבנון ביטלה את עונש המוות, חיזבאללה התנגד↑ 66%

Won't happen (2)

jpost.comIsrael's death penalty for terrorists will not deter Hamas, fuel more violence | The Jerusalem Post↓ 28%

france24.comLebanon becomes first Middle Eastern country to abolish the death penalty↓ 23%

Discussion (0)

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Forecast by komapc · opened May 18, 2026 · resolves May 18, 2031 · 2 forecasters · community consensus 64% · AI estimate 54% · open for forecasts.

Author

komapcAReputation 104

Creation date

May 18, 2026, 09:55 AM UTC

Resolution date

May 18, 2031, 11:59 PM UTC

Discussion (0)

No comments yet. Be the first to share your thoughts!

The death penalty will be fully abolished in Israel by May 18, 2031.

Situation

Forecasts History

Sources behind the AI estimate(4 publications)

Discussion (0)

Discussion (0)