What are the chances that The death penalty will be fully abolished in Israel by May 18, 2031?

As of Sep 7, 2026: the evidence estimate is 54%; the community estimate is 64%.

May 18, 2031

Community 64%

The death penalty will be fully abolished in Israel by May 18, 2031.

CreatedCreation date

May 18, 2026May 18, 2026, 09:55 AM UTC

ResolvesResolution date

May 18, 2031May 18, 2031, 11:59 PM UTC

Context

The U.N.…

The U.N. human rights chief has urged Israel to repeal its new "deeply discriminatory" death penalty law, specifically warning against its use for Palestinian residents. This introduces international pressure against the recent legislative trend expanding capital punishment.

Last updated: May 21, 2026, 12:16 PM UTC

Based on

en.wikipedia.org

Evidence estimate

Oracul

55%± 49%

TruthMachine Oracle (admin re-publish from pool) · 4 articles

Community 64%

You 50%

AI 54%

includes time-remaining adjustment — deadline in 1680 days

Forecasts History

Will happen1

andrey1bar

80%

Won't happen1

komapcAuthor

47%

Sources behind the evidence estimate(4 publications)

Publications that fed the Oracul, shown as voters — each takes a side on the claim by the stance of its reporting.

Press lean47% · will

Will happen (2)

Ben Caspitאה, ושימו לב מה רשום בהמשך:↑ 73%

ynet.co.ilהיסטוריה בעולם הערבי: לבנון ביטלה את עונש המוות, חיזבאללה התנגד↑ 66%

Won't happen (2)

jpost.comIsrael's death penalty for terrorists will not deter Hamas, fuel more violence | The Jerusalem Post↓ 28%

france24.comLebanon becomes first Middle Eastern country to abolish the death penalty↓ 23%

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Forecast by komapc · opened May 18, 2026 · resolves May 18, 2031 · 2 forecasters · community consensus 64% · evidence estimate 54% · open for forecasts.

Author

komapcAELO 1404

Creation date

May 18, 2026, 09:55 AM UTC

Resolution date

May 18, 2031, 11:59 PM UTC

Discussion (0)

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