What are the chances that The Lukashenko will not be a leader of Belarus by July 17, 2031?

As of Oct 14, 2026: the evidence estimate is 39%; the community estimate is 71%.

Jul 17, 2031

Community 71%

The Lukashenko will not be a leader of Belarus by July 17, 2031.

CreatedCreation date

Jul 17, 2026Jul 17, 2026, 12:17 PM UTC

ResolvesResolution date

Jul 17, 2031Jul 17, 2031, 11:59 PM UTC

Context

As of May 2024, Aleksandr Lukashenko is identified as the president of Belarus, which is commonly viewed as a Russian outpost on NATO's eastern flank.…

As of May 2024, Aleksandr Lukashenko is identified as the president of Belarus, which is commonly viewed as a Russian outpost on NATO's eastern flank. Earlier, in late 2022, there was Belarusian mobilization amidst a Ukrainian offensive and a pressed Russia, following Russian missile strikes.

Last updated: Jul 17, 2026, 12:19 PM UTC

Evidence estimate

Oracul

40%± 13%

TruthMachine Oracle (news-indexer match) · 11 articles

Community 71%

You 50%

AI 39%

Based on 11 sources · how this is calculated

includes time-remaining adjustment — deadline in 1737 days

Forecasts History

Will happen2

andrey1bar

80%

komapcAuthor

62%

Won't happen0

—

Sources behind the evidence estimate(10 publications)

Publications that fed the Oracul, shown as voters — each takes a side on the claim by the stance of its reporting.

Press lean47% · will

Will happen (5)

euobserver.com[Interview] Belarus Lukashenko fears Putin’s downfall so much that he is ready to change sides quickly, analyst says↑ 84%

TRT WorldBelarus's longtime leader Lukashenko says he won't seek another term, dismisses dynastic succession↑ 78%

Council on Foreign RelationsRussian Annexation of Belarus↑ 72%

carnegieendowment.orgLukashenko’s Seventh Term Will Be His Least Predictable Yet↑ 69%

Chatham HouseThe Belarus ‘election’ raises the question: When will Lukashenka step down?↑ 68%

Won't happen (5)

DW.comIs Lukashenko's youngest son next in line to rule Belarus?↓ 36%

The GuardianLukashenko says he has ‘no regrets’ about Belarus helping Russia to invade Ukraine↓ 28%

Atlantic CouncilLukashenka’s succession game: Promises, power, and the illusion of an exit↓ 21%

kyivpost.comBattle for Belarus↓ 9%

rferl.orgDrama At The Border: How Belarusian Dissident Statkevich Refused Exile↓ 8%

Discussion (0)

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Forecast by komapc · opened Jul 17, 2026 · resolves Jul 17, 2031 · 2 forecasters · community consensus 71% · evidence estimate 39% · open for forecasts.

Author

komapcAELO 1395

Creation date

Jul 17, 2026, 12:17 PM UTC

Resolution date

Jul 17, 2031, 11:59 PM UTC

Discussion (0)

No comments yet. Be the first to share your thoughts!