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RESOLVED WRONG

There will be no missile strikes launched from Iranian territory against Israel, nor from Israeli territory against Iran, during May 2026.

Resolution date
Tags
ConflictGeopoliticsMiddle East
Recent reports confirm missile strikes occurred on February 28, 2026, with Israel (at times jointly with the US) striking Iran, followed by Iranian ballistic missile launches against Israel hours later. Israel has also reiterated warnings to the US of its readiness to independently strike Iran's ballistic missile program if "red lines" are crossed. These developments occur amidst ongoing preparations for a potential resumption of conflict.
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Resolution

Resolved as wrong on

The forecast claimed there would be no missile strikes launched from Iranian territory against Israel, nor from Israeli territory against Iran, during May 2026. However, a Fox News article dated June 1, 2026, reported that 'Iran and Israel shattered the fragile ceasefire between the two countries with an exchange of missile strikes after Israel launched an attack on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon on Sunday.' Given that June 1, 2026, was a Monday, 'Sunday' refers to May 31, 2026. This indicates that an exchange of missile strikes between Iran and Israel occurred on May 31, 2026, which falls within the forecast period. This directly contradicts the claim of no missile strikes.

Evidence:

Forecasts History

Will happen2
Evgeny Ber
Evgeny Ber
71%-25
Lev Kan
Lev KanAuthor
70%-23
Won't happen0

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