What are the chances that Vladimir Putin will die by February 7, 2031?

As of Sep 22, 2026: the evidence estimate is 69%; the community estimate is 53%.

Feb 7, 2031

Community 53%

Vladimir Putin will die by February 7, 2031.

CreatedCreation date

Feb 7, 2026Feb 7, 2026, 07:30 AM UTC

ResolvesResolution date

Feb 7, 2031Feb 7, 2031, 11:59 PM UTC

Context

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy sensationally predicted in March 2025 that Vladimir Putin would die soon, amidst persistent rumors of deteriorating health, though these claims remain unproven. Despite turning 73 in October 2025 and having pushed through constitutional changes allowing him to potentially remain in power until 2036, discussions around his longevity and succession planning continue.

Evidence estimate

Oracul

69%± 13%

TruthMachine Oracle (news-indexer match) · 15 articles

Community 53%

You 50%

AI 69%

includes time-remaining adjustment — deadline in 1580 days

Forecasts History

Will happen1

andrey1bar

53%

Won't happen0

—

Sources behind the evidence estimate(30 publications)

Publications that fed the Oracul, shown as voters — each takes a side on the claim by the stance of its reporting.

Press lean71% · will

Will happen (18)

meduza.io650–81%↑ 81%

Рейтинг Путина опять падает. Но теперь с рекордной скоростью за всю войну — Meduza↑ 81%Путин настроен на дальнейшую эскалацию с Украиной, говорят близкие к Кремлю источники Reuters. По вопросу захвата Донбасса у него «бескомпромиссная позиция» — Meduza↑ 81%ФОМ: доверие россиян к Путину упало до минимума за всю войну — Meduza↑ 81%Рейтинг Путина снова снизился — вторую неделю подряд — Meduza↑ 68%«Кто стирает трусы Путина?». Pet Shop Boys снова выпустили песню о российском президенте — Meduza–Умер бывший глава Минобороны РФ Сергей Иванов — Meduza–

yahoo.com265–83%↑ 83%

Opinion - Putin, now losing in Ukraine, may resort to a desperate gamble in the Baltics↑ 83%Opinion - This winter, Putin will feed even more of Russia’s youth into the meat grinder↑ 65%

ynet.co.il275–82%↑ 82%

התנקשות מסתורית בפולין: נרצח מאייר שלעג בקריקטורות לפוטין↑ 82%משבר הדלק, סימני הקריסה - והחייל שאיים במרד נגד פוטין: "הצבא יפנה נגד הקרמלין"↑ 75%

thehill.com250–74%↑ 74%

Putin’s reign may not survive the impending fall of Crimea↑ 74%In Ukraine, Putin is running out of time and options–

euobserver.com267–68%↑ 67%

An attack on Poland would be Putin’s last fail↑ 67%‘Cursed August’ returns to haunt Russia as Putin’s regime comes under pressure↑ 68%

themoscowtimes.com250–67%↑ 67%

Putin’s Job Approval Rating Sees Sharpest Weekly Drop Since Ukraine Invasion, State Pollster Shows - The Moscow Times↑ 67%Putin’s Longtime Ally Sergei Ivanov Dies at 73 - The Moscow Times–

theguardian.com‘The choice was prison or exile’: journalists who fled Russia publish grim portrait of Putin↑ 91%

lemonde.frVladimir Poutine, un président bunkérisé dans une Russie mise sous cloche↑ 88%

tagesschau.deDuma-Wahl: Putins Sieg an der Zahlenfront↑ 84%

statista.comPutin approval rating Russia 2026| Statista↑ 84%

independent.co.ukPutin knows he’s in trouble. It’s time to kick him while he’s down↑ 82%

jamestown.orgPutin’s Aging Inner Circle Resembles Brezhnev Elite↑ 80%

Ben Caspit Ben Caspit ברצועה מדווחים שהנ"ל חוסל↑ 75%

english.elpais.comVladimir Putin aspires to rule Russia for 30 years by running in an election without competitors↑ 75%

foreignaffairs.comAfter Putin↑ 73%

pravda.com.uaFastest decline in Putin's rating since start of war recorded in Russia↑ 70%

gisreportsonline.comRussian election 2024: Will Putin stay for another round? – GIS Reports↑ 69%

fortune.comThe end of Putin’s regime will spring from war spending chaos, former central bank advisor says, amid military mutiny threat and fuel-shortage brawls | Fortune↑ 68%

Neutral / unclear (2)

google.comWill Vladimir Putin stay in office till 2036? 'Too soon to say, only God knows', says Russian President–

news.northeastern.edu‘It’s a remarkable feat.’ In power since 1999, how Vladimir Putin became a Russian leader rivaled only by Josef Stalin–

Author·

Mark Janwuf·ELO 1500

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Forecast by Mark Janwuf · opened Feb 7, 2026 · resolves Feb 7, 2031 · 1 forecaster · community consensus 53% · evidence estimate 69% · open for forecasts.

Author

Mark JanwufELO 1500

Creation date

Feb 7, 2026, 07:30 AM UTC

Resolution date

Feb 7, 2031, 11:59 PM UTC

Discussion (0)

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