What are the chances that Vladimir Putin will not be the President of Russia by May 8, 2027?

As of Oct 2, 2026: the evidence estimate is 56%; the community estimate is 65%.

May 8, 2027

Community 65%

Vladimir Putin will not be the President of Russia by May 8, 2027.

CreatedCreation date

May 8, 2026May 8, 2026, 05:42 AM UTC

ResolvesResolution date

May 8, 2027May 8, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC

Context

The recent articles detail an intense conflict between the US/Israel and Iran, with President Trump issuing ultimatums and engaging in diplomatic efforts to end the fighting.…

The recent articles detail an intense conflict between the US/Israel and Iran, with President Trump issuing ultimatums and engaging in diplomatic efforts to end the fighting. However, these reports contain no information regarding Vladimir Putin, Russia, or any developments that would alter the previous assessment of his presidential status.

Last updated: May 10, 2026, 05:52 PM UTC

Based on

calcalist.co.il

Evidence estimate

Oracul

56%± 9%

TruthMachine Oracle (news-indexer match) · 61 articles

Community 65%

You 50%

AI 56%

includes time-remaining adjustment — deadline in 216 days

Forecasts History

Will happen2

andrey1barAuthor

80%

Polina Ber

75%

Won't happen1

komapc

41%

Sources behind the evidence estimate(65 publications)

Publications that fed the Oracul, shown as voters — each takes a side on the claim by the stance of its reporting.

Press lean57% · will

Will happen (18)

kyivpost.com911–83%↑ 83%

Goble: Russia Vote Is a ‘Stress Test’ for Putin’s Regime↑ 83%How Putin Will Fall – Part II: Chronicle of a Coming Coup↑ 76%Putin’s Default Mode: When in Doubt, Rattle the Nuclear Saber↓ 11%Russian Elites Turn on Putin Amid Fears of Mutiny↑ 75%Putin Just GUTTED Russia to Keep His War Alive↑ 80%Putin's Approval Drops 5% in One Week, Marking Steepest Decline Since 2022 Mobilization Crisis↑ 78%Schrödinger’s Elections: the Conundrum of Russian Elections↑ 75%Writing on Wall for Putin in D.C.↑ 72%Why Putin’s Real Support May Be Even Lower Than Reported↓ 36%

thehill.com450–75%↑ 75%

Putin’s reign may not survive the impending fall of Crimea↑ 75%War-weary Russia is falling apart↑ 70%In Ukraine, Putin is running out of time and options–This winter, Putin will feed even more of Russia’s youth into the meat grinder↑ 72%

foreignaffairs.com350–80%↑ 80%

After Putin↑ 80%Putin Will Turn a Cease-Fire Into a Weapon↑ 65%Why a Weaker Russia Keeps Fighting–

jamestown.org377–81%↑ 77%

Russian Fuel Crisis Driving Discontent - Jamestown↑ 77%Gas Crisis Increasingly Serious Political Problem for Putin - Jamestown↑ 77%Putin’s ‘Special Electoral Operation’ Could Backfire - Jamestown↑ 81%

yahoo.com328–73%↑ 73%

As NATO meets, Putin is weighing his options in Ukraine, and further afield↑ 73%Opinion - Putin, now losing in Ukraine, may resort to a desperate gamble in the Baltics↑ 68%Opinion - This winter, Putin will feed even more of Russia’s youth into the meat grinder↓ 28%

tagesschau.de264–80%↑ 80%

Duma-Wahl: Putins Sieg an der Zahlenfront↑ 80%Putin in Kasan: Kein Wort zum Großangriff auf Raffinerie in Moskau↑ 64%

euobserver.com277–78%↑ 78%

‘Cursed August’ returns to haunt Russia as Putin’s regime comes under pressure↑ 78%An attack on Poland would be Putin’s last fail↑ 77%

oilprice.com228–72%↑ 72%

What’s Putin’s Secret Post-Election Strategy To Test NATO? | OilPrice.com↑ 72%The Kremlin Consolidates Power as Russia’s Economic Pain Mounts | OilPrice.com↓ 28%

pravda.com.ua236–68%↑ 68%

Fastest decline in Putin's rating since start of war recorded in Russia↑ 68%Putin claims Ukraine will lose western lands and that everyone in Ukraine "has fallen out with each other"↓ 36%

aljazeera.net250–66%↑ 66%

5 تحديات قد تعصف ببوتين.. لماذا تبدو المرحلة المقبلة صعبة للكرملين؟↑ 66%روسيا تنزف اليوم والناتو يخشاها غدا.. ماذا يحدث إذا توقفت حرب أوكرانيا؟–

themoscowtimes.com250–64%↑ 64%

Putin’s Job Approval Rating Sees Sharpest Weekly Drop Since Ukraine Invasion, State Pollster Shows - The Moscow Times↑ 64%Putin’s Longtime Ally Sergei Ivanov Dies at 73 - The Moscow Times–

lemonde.frVladimir Poutine, un président bunkérisé dans une Russie mise sous cloche↑ 86%

fortune.comThe end of Putin’s regime will spring from war spending chaos, former central bank advisor says, amid military mutiny threat and fuel-shortage brawls | Fortune↑ 81%

aljazeera.comRussia’s advance collapses in Ukraine, ‘40,000’ troops killed in June↑ 68%

finance.yahoo.comRussia’s economy is ‘sputtering,’ and Putin’s wartime spending model has pushed the country to an ‘economic, political, and military abyss’↑ 68%

ynet.co.ilמשבר הדלק, סימני הקריסה - והחייל שאיים במרד נגד פוטין: "הצבא יפנה נגד הקרמלין"↑ 68%

atlanticcouncil.orgWe should not fear a post-Putin Russia↑ 66%

semafor.comPutin acknowledges ‘difficult period’ as Ukraine ramps up attacks↑ 63%

Won't happen (7)

meduza.io88–83%↓ 8%

До сегодняшнего дня Путин ни разу не ездил на Курилы. Потому что хотел заключить мирный договор с Японией — но все изменила война с Украиной. Как менялась позиция президента РФ по Южным Курилам. Максимально коротко — Meduza↓ 8%«Быть за Путина — базовый минимум». «Единая Россия» впервые с 2007 года объявила себя партией президента — Meduza↓ 28%«Меня повесят». Это якобы сказал своему окружению Путин, утверждает The Economist. Глава Кремля не знает, как закончить войну — и поэтому готов пойти на эскалацию — Meduza↑ 83%Второй антипутинский фронт: оппозиции в изгнании пора заключить коалиционное соглашение с российскими элитами, недовольными Путиным. «Медуза» публикует анонимную колонку предпринимателя и культурного деятеля из Москвы — Meduza↑ 70%Рейтинг Путина опять падает. Но теперь с рекордной скоростью за всю войну — Meduza↑ 66%Путин впервые за семь месяцев выехал за пределы Москвы и Петербурга — Meduza↑ 69%Рейтинг Путина падает рекордными с начала войны темпами — Meduza↑ 66%Рейтинг Путина снова снизился — вторую неделю подряд — Meduza↑ 64%

independent.co.uk530–71%↓ 30%

Putin will never make peace in Ukraine, opponent warns. Here’s why↓ 30%Putin knows he’s in trouble. It’s time to kick him while he’s down↑ 70%Putin’s friends finally tell him the truth: Get out of Ukraine to save yourself↑ 71%Putin has admitted Russia is facing issues in Ukraine war - is he cracking?↑ 67%I have visited Russia every year since the Ukraine war began. The mood has changed–

google.com33–25%↓ 3%

Putin extends rule in state-managed election victory↓ 3%Russia goes to the polls in elections tailored to guarantee Putin power until 2030↓ 5%Will Vladimir Putin stay in office till 2036? 'Too soon to say, only God knows', says Russian President↓ 25%

bbc.com213–50%↓ 13%

بوتين غير معنيّ بتحقيق السلام، وترامب يقع في فخه – الإندبندنت - BBC News عربي↓ 13%Почему рейтинг Путина падает? - Что это было? - Russian - BBC News Русская служба–

foreignpolicy.com211–50%↓ 11%

Russia Purges Its Last Anti-War Politicians↓ 11%Why Putin Will Escalate–

jpost.comVladimir Putin digs in heels and plans war escalation despite Donald Trump peace claims | The Jerusalem Post↓ 31%

statista.comPutin approval rating Russia 2026| Statista↓ 9%

Neutral / unclear (1)

Kirill Semenov250–50%–

Дарья Митина:–ברצועה מדווחים שהנ"ל חוסל–

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Forecast by andrey1bar · opened May 8, 2026 · resolves May 8, 2027 · 3 forecasters · community consensus 65% · evidence estimate 56% · open for forecasts.

Author

andrey1barAELO 1404

Creation date

May 8, 2026, 05:42 AM UTC

Resolution date

May 8, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC

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