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Retro Analysis

Dec 31, 2026

Сообщество 76%

At least one additional U.S. military aircraft will crash in the ongoing conflict involving Iran by December 31, 2026.

СозданДата создания

Apr 5, 2026Apr 5, 2026, 02:24 PM UTC

РешениеДата решения

Dec 31, 2026Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC

Контекст

Recent articles confirm Iran shot down two U.S.…

Recent articles confirm Iran shot down two U.S. military aircraft three days ago, identifying one as a fighter jet. One service member was rescued, with another still missing amidst escalating conflict. This reinforces the significant risks in current military engagements.

Последнее обновление: Apr 6, 2026, 08:06 PM UTC

Based on

Evidence estimate

Oracul

69%± 3%

TruthMachine Oracle (news-indexer match) · 297 articles

Resolved as YES if official U.S. or Iranian military sources, or major international news agencies (e.g., AP, Reuters) report the crash of at least one additional U.S. military aircraft in the conflict involving Iran by December 31, 2026. Resolved as NO otherwise.

Сообщество 76%

Вы 50%

ИИ 69%

с учётом оставшегося времени — срок через 81 дн.

Tags

None

История прогнозов

Произойдёт3

100%

74%

komapcАвтор

55%

Не произойдёт0

—

Источники оценки по новостям(86 публикаций)

Каждая публикация занимает позицию по утверждению — в зависимости от позиции, выраженной в её материалах.

Уклон прессы81% · будет

Пресса склоняется к «произойдёт» · 81%

Произойдёт (24)

A

aa.com.tr1150–94%↑ 86%

81 US aircraft lost or damaged during Iran war, congressional document shows↑ 86%Morning Briefing: Sept. 18, 2026↑ 84%US MQ-1 drone downed by Iran over Strait of Hormuz: Report↑ 83%Iranian strikes caused widespread damage to US bases across Middle East: Report↑ 93%US-contracted vessel struck in Iranian attack near Strait of Hormuz: Report↑ 94%Iran claims it struck US unmanned surveillance vessel in Strait of Hormuz↑ 78%Iran says another US MQ-9 drone downed over Qeshm Island near Strait of Hormuz↑ 75%US senator urges Congress to cut off funding for Iran war↑ 73%US to send 3rd carrier strike group to Middle East as Iran tensions rise: Report↑ 70%Iran’s Revolutionary Guards say missiles struck US aircraft carrier, destroyer–Several US fighter jets damaged in Iranian strikes on Jordan: Report–

T

tehrantimes.com975–93%↑ 93%

IRGC downs third intruding US drone in 24 hours over Strait of Hormuz↑ 93%Iran downs another US drone over Strait of Hormuz, brings total American drone losses to 53↑ 86%Leaked photos and munition depletion expose devastating toll of Iranian strikes on US bases↑ 86%The arithmetic of US decline↑ 85%Resalat: The US fleet under Iranian ballistic fire↑ 83%Iran’s retaliatory fire sends US warships fleeing, exposes American vulnerability↑ 85%Americans are seeking a pretext for another strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities↑ 78%IRGC shoots down advanced MQ-1 drone over Strait of Hormuz↑ 75%IRGC deals fresh blows to US fleet, regional infrastructure↑ 75%

T

timesofindia.indiatimes.com850–95%↑ 90%

'Do I want to annihilate them?' Trump weighs next phase of Iran war↑ 90%70 Patriots for 20 Iranian missiles: Iran’s evolving tactics strain US interceptor stocks | - The Times of India↑ 93%F-35s, F-15s, Reapers: US loses 81 aircraft as Iran war bill hits $3.3 billion↑ 89%$33.4bn war cost, $22.3bn on munitions: What US lost in 6 months of Iran war - The Times of India↑ 95%'Permanently disabled': US shares video of strike on Iranian tanker, issues warning↑ 93%Iran claims ‘punitive strike’ damaged US air base in Jordan as Middle East tensions escalate - top developments↑ 92%Watch: US strikes 5 Iranian oil tankers near Kharg Island after IRGC targeted American navy ship↑ 94%US suffered major aircraft losses after Iran strike on Jordan base: Report–

A

aljazeera.net850–88%↑ 82%

أسقطت أكثر من 30 طائرة.. إيران تتحول إلى مصيدة لدرة تاج المسيرات الأمريكية↑ 82%تقرير يكشف حصيلة خسائر الطائرات الأمريكية خلال حرب إيران↑ 84%مسؤول بإدارة ترمب: هجوم إيران ألحق أضرارا بمقاتلات أمريكية في الأردن↑ 85%مصادر أمريكية: إيران استخدمت صواريخ متطورة والحرب قد تمتد حتى نهاية ولاية ترمب↑ 81%عاجل | الحرس الثوري الإيراني: استهدفنا بالصواريخ حاملة طائرات ومدمرة أمريكيتين ضايقتا سفنا إيرانية وشاركتا في الحصار↑ 79%قاليباف: عصر استهداف المقاتلات الأمريكية قد بدأ↑ 88%إصابة 8 جنود أمريكيين في هجوم إيراني على سفينتهم بمضيق هرمز↑ 72%ماذا نعرف عن الناقلات الإيرانية الخمس التي ضربتها واشنطن؟–

A

aljazeera.com581–95%↑ 95%

Dozens of aircraft, hundreds of buildings: US loss to Iran attacks revealed↑ 95%At least 81 US aircraft worth up to $3.3bn lost or damaged in Iran war↑ 86%Why is Trump threatening to strike Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain again, now?↑ 88%US destroys five Iranian tankers, Iran retaliates with attacks on Jordan↑ 86%US, Iran engaged in tanker war: Where is the months-long conflict headed?↑ 81%

M

middleeasteye.net575–94%↑ 88%

Iran downed at least 2 unmanned American aircraft in recent days, US officials say↑ 88%Recap: Iran says it is prepared for prolonged war↑ 79%Iranian strikes damaged multiple aircraft on Jordan base, report says↑ 94%IRGC says it downed destroyed another US MQ-1 drone over Hormuz Strait↑ 75%Underwater drone capture gives Tehran opportunity to reverse engineer vessel↑ 77%

K

kikar.co.il550–83%↑ 83%

תרחיש יום הדין: איראן עלולה להשמיד את המפרץ הפרסי↑ 83%50 שעות בגיהנום: מעל 90 לוחמי עילית אמריקאים באיראן - מטוס..↑ 75%איראן טוענת: לכדנו רחפן תת-ימי אמריקאי מתקדם - כך היא צפוי..↑ 67%איראן שוברת את התקרה ומשדרגת את טווח הטילים: בפנטגון נערכים–שר החוץ האיראני חוגג עם העוקבים: "81 כלי טיס אמריקניים נפג..–

B

bbc.com484–89%↑ 88%

آیا واشنگتن خود را برای جنگی تا سال ۲۰۲۹ آماده میکند؟ - BBC News فارسی↑ 88%در جستوجوی پایان بدون شکست؛ چرا آتش جنگ ایران همچنان شعلهور است؟ - BBC News فارسی↑ 84%چرا پایگاههای آمریکا آسیبپذیرند و طرح تازه دفاع از آنها چیست؟ - BBC News فارسی↑ 89%США заявили об уничтожении пяти иранских танкеров, Иран нанес ответный удар - BBC News Русская служба↑ 87%

T

thehill.com469–86%↑ 79%

81 US military aircraft, drones damaged during Iran war: Report↑ 79%Iran attacks US ship in Strait of Hormuz↑ 86%Iran is losing — that’s why we should expect and prepare for more terrorist attacks↑ 70%UK airbase plot expands fears of Iran’s military capabilities↑ 69%

I

independent.co.uk380–91%↑ 91%

US defense chiefs warn of munitions shortfall over Iran war↑ 91%Iran-US war latest: US and Tehran trade attacks on ships as conflict intensifies↑ 86%More than 80 planes worth up to $3 billion damaged or lost in Iran war, report finds↑ 80%

AE

Abu Ali Express368–88%↑ 88%

פרופסור מחמד מרנדי, חבר משלחת המו"מ האיראנית משגר איום חדש בעקבות התקיפה האמריקאית על 3 מיכליות נפט איראניות הבוקר ☝️:↑ 88%"מצאנו את עצמנו מרחפים מעל לבה של איראן! פגעתי בקרקע במהירות של בין 110 ל-160 קילומטר לשעה! שלחתי 'אלוהים הוא טוב' כהכרת תודה!" | נס בלב איראן - התחקיר המלא על הפלת מטוס הקרב והחילוץ המסווג בלב שטח הא↑ 75%אנדי ברנהאם, ראש ממשלת בריטניה על תקרית חומרי הנפץ ליד הבסיס האווירי RAF Fairford☝️: איראן מעורבת↑ 68%

R

responsiblestatecraft.org293–94%↑ 94%

Trump's govt makes 'treasonous' claim of weapons shortages↑ 94%No war? 377 US forces injured since July, 36 in 2 weeks↑ 93%

D

defensenews.com293–96%↑ 93%

Iran attack on base in Jordan damaged American military aircraft, US official says↑ 93%Iranian strikes damaged hundreds of US military buildings, dozens of aircraft↑ 96%

Y

yahoo.com291–93%↑ 93%

Iran strikes on US diplomatic facilities in 4 Gulf countries cost $184M: IG report↑ 93%The US wants to manage the stalemate in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran wants to break it↑ 91%

S

srugim.co.il268–89%↑ 89%

החות'ים מפרסמים: כך הופל מטוס הקרב הסעודי - סרוגים↑ 89%סיבוב שני למלחמה באיראן? ארה"ב מחזירה מטוסי תדלוק לאזור - סרוגים↑ 68%

J

jpost.com288–88%↑ 88%

US officials: At least two US military drones recently shot down by Iranian fire | The Jerusalem Post↑ 88%Heavy MQ-9 losses in Iran war signal push for mass-producible replacement drones | The Jerusalem Post↑ 88%

A

azatutyun.am281–89%↑ 81%

Իրանը հայտնել է, որ ամերիկյան MQ-1 անօդաչու է խոցել Հորմուզում↑ 81%ԱՄՆ-ն և Իրանը հարվածներ են փոխանակել, նավթը գինն անցել է 100 դոլարը↑ 89%

C

cnbc.comWeapon shortfalls, 'hundreds' of buildings and aircraft damaged, $33.4 billion spent: the U.S. government tallies costs of the Iran war↑ 96%

Y

ynetnews.com US acknowledges for first time that war in Iran caused weapons shortage↑ 94%

P

pbs.orgU.S. military hits 3 Iranian oil tankers after saying Navy ships were targeted with missiles↑ 94%

O

oilprice.comOil Nears $100 as U.S. Destroys Five Iranian Tankers | OilPrice.com↑ 92%

A

al-monitor.comUS strikes Iranian tankers after attempted attack on Navy ships↑ 90%

C

cnn.comUS has lost or sustained damage to 81 military aircraft worth up to $3.3 billion in Iran war, congressional report says | CNN↑ 80%

F

foreignpolicy.comHow to Avoid Disaster in the Next Iran War↑ 77%

Нейтрально / неясно (1)

Y

ynet.co.il250–50%–

ארה"ב פרסמה סרטון: תקפנו 3 מכליות איראניות - אחרי ירי טילים לנושאת מטוסים–ההתגרות האיראנית בטראמפ, "שיא הנפט" במבצע החשאי - וההלם ממצב נושאת המטוסים–

Обсуждение (0)

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Автор

komapcAELO 1404

Дата создания

Apr 5, 2026, 02:24 PM UTC

Дата решения

Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC

Tags

None

Обсуждение (0)

Пока нет комментариев. Будьте первым, кто поделится мнением!