Dec 31, 2029

Community 55%

Alexander Lukashenko will not be the President of Belarus by December 31, 2029.

CreatedCreation date

Feb 28, 2026Feb 28, 2026, 12:17 PM UTC

ResolvesResolution date

Dec 31, 2029Dec 31, 2029, 11:59 PM UTC

Context

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, a key ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, stated in August 2025 that he would not seek re-election in 2030.…

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, a key ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, stated in August 2025 that he would not seek re-election in 2030. This announcement follows mass protests in Belarus in August 2020, which his regime suppressed. Despite his stated intention not to run in 2030, he continues to perform presidential duties, including attending the CIS Heads of State Council in October 2025.

Based on

scmp.com

Evidence estimate

Oracul

40%± 12%

TruthMachine Oracle (admin re-publish from pool) · 13 articles

Community 55%

You 50%

AI 41%

includes time-remaining adjustment — deadline in 1184 days

Forecasts History

Will happen2

andrey1bar

60%

Evgeny Ber

51%

Won't happen0

—

Sources behind the evidence estimate(22 publications)

Publications that fed the Oracul, shown as voters — each takes a side on the claim by the stance of its reporting.

Press lean41% · will

Will happen (4)

Ben Caspit ברצועה מדווחים שהנ"ל חוסל↑ 75%

trtworld.comTRT World - Belarus's longtime leader Lukashenko says he won't seek another term, dismisses dynastic succession↑ 70%

jamestown.orgPutin’s Aging Inner Circle Resembles Brezhnev Elite↑ 68%

gisreportsonline.comRussian election 2024: Will Putin stay for another round? – GIS Reports↑ 63%

Won't happen (8)

kyivpost.com410–50%↓ 21%

Exiled Belarus Opposition Awaits Regime Split↓ 21%Lukashenko Meets Putin Amid Secret Decrees and CIA Visit↓ 10%‘Putin’s Defeat in Ukraine Necessary for a Free Belarus,’ Exiled Opposition Leader Says–Battle for Belarus–

atlanticcouncil.org214–35%↓ 14%

Lukashenka’s succession game: Promises, power, and the illusion of an exit↓ 14%Could Bulgaria replace Hungary as Putin’s proxy inside the EU?↓ 35%

dw.comIs Lukashenko's youngest son next in line to rule Belarus?↓ 33%

theguardian.comLukashenko says he has ‘no regrets’ about Belarus helping Russia to invade Ukraine↓ 32%

ynet.co.ilלאחר המתקפה האנטישמית: משרד החוץ זימן את שגריר בלארוס לשיחת נזיפה ↓ 28%

quincyinst.orgRethinking the U.S.–Belarus Relationship↓ 27%

euobserver.com[Interview] Belarus Lukashenko fears Putin’s downfall so much that he is ready to change sides quickly, analyst says↓ 13%

aljazeera.comUN experts say Belarus justice system used to target Lukashenko opponents↓ 9%

Neutral / unclear (6)

meduza.ioОфис Зеленского попросил генпрокурора Украины завести уголовное дело на Лукашенко — Meduza–

themoscowtimes.comLukashenko to Meet Putin on Saturday - The Moscow Times–

rferl.orgVeteran Belarusian Opposition Figure Alyaksandr Milinkevich Dies Aged 79–

pravda.com.uaUkrainian Prosecutor General's Office receives request from President's Office to open proceedings against Belarusian leader Lukashenko–

pbs.orgBelarusian opposition leader on fighting for democracy under Lukashenko–

carnegieendowment.orgLukashenko’s Seventh Term Will Be His Least Predictable Yet–

Author·

komapcA·ELO 1404

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Forecast by komapc · opened Feb 28, 2026 · resolves Dec 31, 2029 · 2 forecasters · community consensus 55% · evidence estimate 41% · open for forecasts.

Author

komapcAELO 1404

Creation date

Feb 28, 2026, 12:17 PM UTC

Resolution date

Dec 31, 2029, 11:59 PM UTC

Discussion (0)

No comments yet. Be the first to share your thoughts!