What are the chances that Alexander Lukashenko will not be the President of Belarus by December 31, 2029? As of Aug 16, 2026: the AI estimate is 44%; the community estimate is 55%. · Updated Aug 16, 2026
includes time-remaining adjustment — deadline in 1230 days
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Publications that fed the Oracle, shown as voters — each takes a side on the claim by the stance of its reporting.
Will happen (3)
Won't happen (10)
Neutral / unclear (4)
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Forecast by komapc · opened Feb 28, 2026 · resolves Dec 31, 2029 · 2 forecasters · community consensus 55% · AI estimate 44% · open for forecasts.
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