Feb 7, 2028
Community 53%
The United Nations will grant Palestine full member state status by February 7, 2028.
CreatedCreation date
Feb 7, 2026Feb 7, 2026, 10:03 AM UTC
ResolvesResolution date
Feb 7, 2028Feb 7, 2028, 11:59 PM UTC
In September 2025, the UN General Assembly endorsed a declaration on a two-state solution for Israel and Palestine. During a summit that month, several European countries, including France, announced their recognition of a Palestinian state, adding to the approximately three-fourths of UN member states that already recognize Palestine.
Community 53%
You 50%
AI 62%
includes time-remaining adjustment — deadline in 574 days
Forecasts History
Will happen1
A
andrey1bar
53%
Won't happen0
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Sources behind the AI estimate(6 publications)
Publications that fed the Oracle, shown as voters — each takes a side on the claim by the stance of its reporting.
Press lean67% · will
Press leans toward 'will happen' · 67%Will happen (1)
Aaljazeera.com6↑ 81%
Australia to recognise Palestinian statehood; New Zealand may follow↑ 62%France among six more countries to formally recognise Palestinian statehood↑ 48%UN General Assembly backs two-state push for Israel and Palestine↑ 44%Belgium to recognise Palestinian statehood, impose sanctions on Israel↑ 46%Israel-Palestine two-state solution summit to be held as recognitions surge–Western bids to recognise a Palestinian state put Israel first–
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Forecast by Mark Janwuf · opened Feb 7, 2026 · resolves Feb 7, 2028 · 1 forecaster · community consensus 53% · AI estimate 62% · open for forecasts.
Creation date
Feb 7, 2026, 10:03 AM UTC
Resolution date
Feb 7, 2028, 11:59 PM UTC
Discussion (0)
No comments yet. Be the first to share your thoughts!