Dec 31, 2026

Community 41%

Benjamin Netanyahu will be the Prime Minister of Israel on December 31, 2026.

CreatedCreation date

Apr 8, 2026Apr 8, 2026, 08:12 PM UTC

ResolvesResolution date

Dec 31, 2026Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC

Tags

Geopolitics Middle East politics Israeli Elections 2026

Benjamin Netanyahu has served as Prime Minister of Israel since 2022, following a previous term that ended in 2021. He has reportedly expressed intentions to run for Prime Minister again in 2026 and is also reportedly moving to officially postpone Israel's national elections.

Community 41%

You 50%

AI 77%

Probability over time

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Forecasts History

Will happen1

Roman HalfinAuthor

65%

Won't happen2

23%

35%

Sources behind the AI estimate(25 publications)

Publications that fed the Oracle, shown as voters — each takes a side on the claim by the stance of its reporting.

Press lean53% · will

Will happen (7)

J

jpost.com5↑ 82%

Benjamin Netanyahu holds lead to win election, as almost all of votes counted | The Jerusalem Post↑ 64%Netanyahu’s coalition strategy behind legislative blitz | The Jerusalem Post↑ 70%Netanyahu's unity government pivot could reshape Israeli politics, end boycott | The Jerusalem Post–'Benjamin Netanyahu prepared to quit in return for Israel-Saudi peace deal' | The Jerusalem Post–Israeli citizens abroad attempt to secure airline tickets for October elections | The Jerusalem Post–

A

aljazeera.com4↑ 81%

Who is Israel’s new Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu?↑ 62%Could Israel’s coming election see an end to Netanyahu’s political career?↓ 58%Who are the ministers leading Israel’s new far-right government?↑ 59%Israel to hold national elections on October 27, parliament says↓ 48%

I

israelnationalnews.com3↑ 79%

Eisenkot launches campaign: 'I will be the Prime Minister of all Israelis'↑ 58%New identity: Prime Minister Netanyahu's son changes his name↓ 67%Netanyahu hints he has chosen successor↓ 40%

jns.orgIsrael’s historic right-wing government is the democratic will of the voters↑ 93%

lemonde.frIsraël : Benyamin Nétanyahou annonce être candidat aux prochaines élections législatives↑ 88%

atlanticcouncil.orgIsrael’s next government must prioritize the Abraham Accords↑ 83%

bbc.co.ukمکرون: ناو شارل دوگل خاورمیانه را ترک می‌کند اما نیروهای مین‌روب فرانسه در منطقه می‌مانند - BBC News فارسی↑ 75%

Won't happen (2)

Y

ynet.co.il4↓ 83%

החוקים בשבוע המכריע של הדיל: נתניהו משלם לחרדים במזומן - ויקבל נאמנות באשראי↓ 67%הלא–רלוונטי / רענן שקד↓ 60%9-7 מנדטים מהימין המתון יכריעו. נתניהו מנסה לסדר אותם–לקראת מיני-פריימריז בליכוד: המתווה חסר התקדים שיזם נתניהו - ודרוש אישור–

A

al-monitor.com2↓ 77%

Israel elections to be held on October 27: parliament↓ 54%Israel's election will be held on October 27, coalition head says↓ 53%

Neutral / unclear (2)

A

aljazeera.net2–

بعد تحديد موعد الانتخابات.. من أبرز المرشحين في مواجهة نتنياهو؟–لا بواكي له.. هل هذه زيارة نتنياهو الأخيرة إلى واشنطن؟–

theguardian.comIsrael sets October date for first elections since Hamas attacks in 2023–

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Forecast by Roman Halfin · opened Apr 8, 2026 · resolves Dec 31, 2026 · 3 forecasters · community consensus 41% · AI estimate 77% · open for forecasts.

Author

Roman HalfinReputation 100

Creation date

Apr 8, 2026, 08:12 PM UTC

Resolution date

Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC

Tags

Geopolitics Middle East politics Israeli Elections 2026

Discussion (0)

No comments yet. Be the first to share your thoughts!