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DAATAN
RESOLVED CORRECT
Jun 1, 2026

The active phase of the war involving Iran will not resume before June 1, 2026.

Created
Apr 14, 2026
Resolves
Jun 1, 2026
Tags
ConflictGeopoliticsMiddle East
A new 10-day ceasefire has been announced between Israel and Lebanon. Iran has indicated this development is key to resuming stalled negotiations with the U.S., signaling a readiness for talks.
50%You
Community 30%
You 50%
AI 49%

Resolution

Resolved as correct on Jun 3, 2026

The forecast claims that the active phase of the war involving Iran will not resume before June 1, 2026. The resolution rules state that the prediction resolves as TRUE if no major military engagements involving Iran are widely reported by reputable news sources between April 14, 2026, and June 1, 2026. The provided news context, consisting of 12 articles from the forecast period, does not contain any reports of major military engagements involving Iran. Therefore, based on the available evidence, the condition for the claim to be TRUE is met.

Probability over time

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Forecasts History

Will happen0

—

Won't happen3
A
andrey1bar
25%-32
Evgeny Ber
Evgeny Ber
30%-24
K
komapcAuthor
36%-16

Sources behind the AI estimate(1 publication)

Publications that fed the Oracle, shown as voters — each takes a side on the claim by the stance of its reporting.

Press lean50% · will
Press is evenly split

Neutral / unclear (1)

A
atlanticcouncil.org–

Discussion (0)

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Forecast by komapc · opened Apr 14, 2026 · resolves Jun 1, 2026 · 3 forecasters · community consensus 30% · AI estimate 49% · resolved correct.