DAATAN
1500
Middle East only · head-to-head
Everyone starts at 1500. Beat the other forecasters on the same event and you take points from them; lose and they take yours.
A sovereign and internationally recognized Palestinian state will not be officially established by June 1, 2027.
Performance
The share of resolved forecasts that turned out right. Ignores how confident you were.
How close the probabilities were to what actually happened: (probability − outcome)², averaged. 0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip, lower is better.
