DAATAN
1529
all topics · head-to-head
Everyone starts at 1500. Beat the other forecasters on the same event and you take points from them; lose and they take yours.
Performance
The share of resolved forecasts that turned out right. Ignores how confident you were.
How close the probabilities were to what actually happened: (probability − outcome)², averaged. 0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip, lower is better.