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Noga Gshur (@null) - DAATAN Profile | DAATAN

Noga Gshur

Noga Gshur

JoinedOctober 2026

All9 politics5 Elections5 Israel3 Israeli Elections 20263 Geopolitics2 Israeli Elections1 Technology1 Music1

ELO Rating

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no resolved forecasts in politics yet

Everyone starts at 1500. Beat the other forecasters on the same event and you take points from them; lose and they take yours.

created(0)participated(5)resolved(0)

4AI: 56±11%Israeli Elections 2026 politics

In the next Knesset elections, no single party will receive more than 25 seats.

YES

2AI: 56±12%Israeli Elections 2026 politics

Naftali Bennett will be sworn in as the next Prime Minister of Israel.

NO

4AI: 29±27%Israeli Elections 2026 politics

Am Yisrael will not pass the electoral threshold in the next general elections for the Knesset by December 31, 2026.

NO

7AI: 31±12%politics US Politics

Donald Trump will be elected for a third term as President of the United States by November 7, 2028.

NO

4AI: 62±11%politics Elections

The voter turnout in the upcoming Knesset elections will reach at least 73%.

YES

Performance

Accuracy · politics—need 3 more resolved to show

The share of resolved forecasts that turned out right. Ignores how confident you were.

Brier Score · politics—no scored forecasts yet — enter a % estimate when you stake

How close the probabilities were to what actually happened: (probability − outcome)², averaged. 0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip, lower is better.