Evgeny Ber

JoinedMarch 2026

ELO Rating

1533

Sports only · head-to-head

Everyone starts at 1500. Beat the other forecasters on the same event and you take points from them; lose and they take yours.

Wrong

France will win World Cup

France will win the 2026 World Cup by July 19, 2026.

YES

3AI: 67±7%Sports Chess

Yağız Kaan Erdoğmuş will become one of the top 10 ranked chess players in the world by December 31, 2026.

NO

4AI: 63±44%Sports Chess

D. Gukesh will lose his World Chess Champion title in his next title defense match by December 31, 2026.

YES

Correct

Who will win the FIDE Candidates Tournament 2026?

Staked

3AI: 73±27%Sports Chess

Magnus Carlsen will no longer be the FIDE World No. 1 rated chess player by December 31, 2028.

YES

Performance

Accuracy · Sports—need 1 more resolved to show

The share of resolved forecasts that turned out right. Ignores how confident you were.

Brier Score · Sports0.2232 scored · lower is better · limited data

How close the probabilities were to what actually happened: (probability − outcome)², averaged. 0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip, lower is better.