Evgeny Ber

Evgeny Ber

JoinedMarch 2026

All25 Geopolitics15 Conflict9 Middle East7 politics5 Sports5 Chess4 Europe3 Technology2

Skill Rating

1616

± 195 uncertainty

Glicko-2 · 1500 = avg

Performance

ELO Rating1429global (head-to-head)

Glicko-2μ 1616global · ± 195 uncertainty

Brier Score0.2757 scored · lower is better

Accuracy57%7 resolved

Wtd. Peer Score—need 2 more peer-scored

Peer Score-0.011 scored

ROI-2.43RS / resolved prediction

AI Score-0.011 scored

Reputation83.0 RSglobal · pool-based

Peer score by topic

Conflict-0.014(1)

Geopolitics-0.014(1)

Middle East-0.014(1)

Glicko-2 Skill History

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created(2)participated(25)resolved(7)

2AI: 27±12%politics Elections

Likud will secure more than 33 seats in the next Israeli Knesset election by December 31, 2026.

NO

3AI: 30%Geopolitics Russia

There will be a military mobilisation in Russia by September 5, 2026.

YES

3AI: 59±13%Geopolitics Defense

The U.S. will formally approve an F-35 sale to Turkey by December 31, 2026.

YES

3AI: 67±10%Sports Football

France will win the 2026 World Cup by July 19, 2026.

YES

3AI: 75±10%Science Health

Humanity will defeat aging by December 31, 2032.

NO

5AI: 41±14%Geopolitics Conflict

A ceasefire lasting longer than one week will not be implemented in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2026.

NO

Wrong

2Geopolitics Conflict

There will be no missile strikes launched from Iranian territory against Israel, nor from Israeli territory against Iran, during May 2026.

YES

2AI: 40%politics Geopolitics

A significant public split within the Russian political or security elites will occur due to internet blockades by January 1 2029 00:01

YES

2AI: 64%Geopolitics Iran

Iran will officially agree to give up all its enriched uranium by December 31, 2026.

NO

Wrong

4Geopolitics Conflict

A high-intensity military conflict will resume between Iran and US/allied forces by early May 2026, and the Strait of Hormuz will be open to international shipping by mid-May 2026.

YES

3AI: 55%Sports Chess

Yağız Kaan Erdoğmuş will become one of the top 10 ranked chess players in the world by December 31, 2026.

NO

7AI: 70±25%politics Elections

Benjamin Netanyahu will win the 2026 Israeli general election and be appointed Prime Minister.

NO

Correct

3Geopolitics Conflict

The active phase of the war involving Iran will not resume before June 1, 2026.

NO

Correct

4politics Europe

Peter Magyar will officially assume the role of Prime Minister of Hungary by December 31, 2026.

YES

4AI: 52±34%Sports Chess

D. Gukesh will lose his World Chess Champion title in his next title defense match by December 31, 2026.

YES

3AI: 37%Geopolitics US Politics

The United States will formally withdraw its membership from the United Nations by December 31, 2026.

NO

2Tel Aviv Urban Development

The New Central Bus Station in Tel Aviv will be demolished by December 31, 2029.

YES

Correct

2Iran Geopolitics

A ceasefire will be declared in the conflict involving Iran by April 30, 2026.

omri cohen-alloro

NO

2AI: 64±14%AI Technology

By December 31, 2027, at least 20% of global programmer jobs will have been replaced by AI.

YES

Correct

Who will win the FIDE Candidates Tournament 2026?

Staked

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