Skill Rating
1597
± 290 uncertainty
Glicko-2 · 1500 = avg
Performance
ELO Rating1500global (head-to-head)
Glicko-2μ 1597global · ± 290 uncertainty
Brier Score0.1433 scored · lower is better · limited data
Accuracy100%3 resolved
ROI+11RS / resolved prediction
Reputation133.0 RSglobal · pool-based
Glicko-2 Skill History
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A ceasefire lasting longer than one week will not be implemented in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2026.
4commitments
Lev Kan
NO
—
There will be no missile strikes launched from Iranian territory against Israel, nor from Israeli territory against Iran, during May 2026.
2commitments
Lev Kan
YES
—
A significant public split within the Russian political or security elites will occur due to internet blockades by January 1 2029 00:01
2commitments
Polina Ber
YES
—
Iran will officially agree to give up all its enriched uranium by December 31, 2026.
2commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
A high-intensity military conflict will resume between Iran and US/allied forces by early May 2026, and the Strait of Hormuz will be open to international shipping by mid-May 2026.
4commitments
Uri Gordon
YES
—
Yağız Kaan Erdoğmuş will become one of the top 10 ranked chess players in the world by December 31, 2026.
3commitments
A
andrey1barA
NO
—
Benjamin Netanyahu will win the 2026 Israeli general election and be appointed Prime Minister.
7commitments
Yana Elisonian
NO
—
The active phase of the war involving Iran will not resume before June 1, 2026.
3commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
Peter Magyar will officially assume the role of Prime Minister of Hungary by December 31, 2026.
3commitments
A
andrey1barA
YES
—
D. Gukesh will lose his World Chess Champion title in his next title defense match by December 31, 2026.
4commitments
K
komapcA
YES
—
The United States will formally withdraw its membership from the United Nations by December 31, 2026.
3commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
The New Central Bus Station in Tel Aviv will be demolished by December 31, 2029.
Personal
2commitments
A
andrey1barA
YES
Correct
2IranGeopolitics
A ceasefire will be declared in the conflict involving Iran by April 30, 2026.
2commitments
omri cohen-alloroA
NO
—
By December 31, 2027, at least 20% of global programmer jobs will have been replaced by AI.
Personal
1commitments
Ilya Levin
YES
Staked
—
Alexander Lukashenko will not be the President of Belarus by December 31, 2029.
2commitments
K
komapcA
YES
—
Magnus Carlsen will no longer be the FIDE World No. 1 rated chess player by December 31, 2028.
3commitments
K
komapcA
YES
Correct
5GeopoliticsEnergy
The Strait of Hormuz will be fully closed to all international commercial shipping by April 9, 2026.
5commitments
K
komapcA
YES
—
All active armed conflicts globally will cease by December 31, 2026.
3commitments
Anti Spamer
NO
—
US forces will initiate a large-scale ground invasion and occupation of Kharg Island, Iran, by December 31, 2026.
2commitments
Ilya
YES