Skill Rating
1597
± 290 uncertainty
Glicko-2 · 1500 = avg
Performance
ELO Rating1500global (head-to-head)
Glicko-2μ 1597global · ± 290 uncertainty
Brier Score0.1433 scored · lower is better · limited data
Accuracy100%3 resolved
ROI+11RS / resolved prediction
Reputation133.0 RSglobal · pool-based
Glicko-2 Skill History
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Correct
2IranGeopolitics
A ceasefire will be declared in the conflict involving Iran by April 30, 2026.
2commitments
omri cohen-alloroA
NO✓ 0.202
Staked✓ 0.022
Correct
5GeopoliticsEnergy
The Strait of Hormuz will be fully closed to all international commercial shipping by April 9, 2026.
5commitments
K
komapcA
YES✓ 0.203