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Retro Analysis

Evgeny Ber (@null) - DAATAN Profile | DAATAN

Evgeny Ber

Evgeny Ber

JoinedMarch 2026

All25 Geopolitics15 Conflict9 Middle East7 politics5 Sports5 Chess4 Europe3 Technology2

Skill Rating

1612

± 183 uncertainty

Glicko-2 · 1500 = avg

created(2)participated(25)resolved(9)

Correct

4Geopolitics Russia

There will be a military mobilisation in Russia by September 5, 2026.

YES

Wrong

3Sports Football

France will win the 2026 World Cup by July 19, 2026.

YES✗ 0.423

Wrong

2Geopolitics Conflict

There will be no missile strikes launched from Iranian territory against Israel, nor from Israeli territory against Iran, during May 2026.

YES✗ 0.497

Wrong

4Geopolitics Conflict

A high-intensity military conflict will resume between Iran and US/allied forces by early May 2026, and the Strait of Hormuz will be open to international shipping by mid-May 2026.

YES✗ 0.490

Correct

3Geopolitics Conflict

The active phase of the war involving Iran will not resume before June 1, 2026.

NO✗ 0.490

Correct

4politics Europe

Peter Magyar will officially assume the role of Prime Minister of Hungary by December 31, 2026.

YES✓ 0.023

Correct

2Iran Geopolitics

A ceasefire will be declared in the conflict involving Iran by April 30, 2026.

omri cohen-alloro

NO✓ 0.202

Correct

Who will win the FIDE Candidates Tournament 2026?

Staked✓ 0.022

Correct

5Geopolitics Energy

The Strait of Hormuz will be fully closed to all international commercial shipping by April 9, 2026.

YES✓ 0.203

Performance

ELO Rating1469global (head-to-head)

Glicko-2μ 1612global · ± 183 uncertainty

Brier Score0.2948 scored · lower is better

Accuracy50%8 resolved

Wtd. Peer Score—need 2 more peer-scored

Peer Score-0.011 scored

ROI-4.25RS / resolved prediction

AI Score+0.062 scored

Reputation66.0 RSglobal · pool-based

Peer score by topic

Conflict-0.014(1)

Geopolitics-0.014(1)

Middle East-0.014(1)

Glicko-2 Skill History

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