Skill Rating
1435
± 254 uncertainty
Glicko-2 · 1500 = avg
Performance
ELO Rating1465global (head-to-head)
Glicko-2μ 1435global · ± 254 uncertainty
Brier Score · Conflict0.6321 scored · lower is better · limited data
Wtd. Peer Score—need 2 more peer-scored
Peer Score · Conflict-0.341 scored
AI Score · Conflict-0.271 scored
RS · Conflict-38
Reputation43.0 RSglobal · pool-based
Glicko-2 Skill History · Conflict
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Wrong
4GeopoliticsConflict
A high-intensity military conflict will resume between Iran and US/allied forces by early May 2026, and the Strait of Hormuz will be open to international shipping by mid-May 2026.
4commitments
Uri Gordon
YES
—
A formal, signed ceasefire agreement between Ukraine and Russia will be publicly announced and take effect.
1commitments
Mark Janwuf
YES