Skill Rating
1435
± 254 uncertainty
Glicko-2 · 1500 = avg
Performance
ELO Rating1465global (head-to-head)
Glicko-2μ 1435global · ± 254 uncertainty
Brier Score0.4423 scored · lower is better · limited data
Accuracy33%3 resolved
Wtd. Peer Score—need 1 more peer-scored
Peer Score-0.252 scored
ROI-19RS / resolved prediction
AI Score-0.782 scored
Reputation43.0 RSglobal · pool-based
Peer score by topic
Conflict-0.344(1)
Geopolitics-0.344(1)
Middle East-0.344(1)
Sports+0.090(1)
NBA+0.090(1)
Basketball+0.090(1)
Glicko-2 Skill History
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Wrong
2SportsNBA
The Denver Nuggets will win their NBA playoff series against the Minnesota Timberwolves.
2commitments
A
andrey1barA
YES
—
Deni Avdija will be selected to one of the All-NBA Teams for the 2025-26 season by the official announcement.
1commitments
Roman Bar
NO
—
Yağız Kaan Erdoğmuş will become one of the top 10 ranked chess players in the world by December 31, 2026.
3commitments
A
andrey1barA
NO
Wrong
4GeopoliticsConflict
A high-intensity military conflict will resume between Iran and US/allied forces by early May 2026, and the Strait of Hormuz will be open to international shipping by mid-May 2026.
4commitments
Uri Gordon
YES
—
A formal, signed ceasefire agreement between Ukraine and Russia will be publicly announced and take effect.
1commitments
Mark Janwuf
YES