DAATANDAATAN
Polina Ber

Polina Ber

JoinedMarch 2026
All17Geopolitics11Conflict6Russia6Middle East5politics5Technology2Elections2Europe2
Skill Rating

1662

± 290 uncertainty

Glicko-2 · 1500 = avg

Performance

ELO Rating1532global (head-to-head)
Glicko-2μ 1662global · ± 290 uncertainty
Brier Score · Conflict0.0001 scored · lower is better · limited data
Wtd. Peer Score—need 2 more peer-scored
Peer Score · Conflict+0.041 scored
AI Score · Conflict+01 scored
RS · Conflict+25
Reputation125.0 RSglobal · pool-based

Glicko-2 Skill History · Conflict

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created(0)participated(6)resolved(1)
Correct
3GeopoliticsConflict

Ukraine will not launch a direct military attack on Moscow by May 9, 2026.

3
K
komapcA
YES
4AI: 85%GeopoliticsConflict

A ceasefire lasting longer than one week will not be implemented in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2026.

4
Lev Kan
Lev Kan
YES
3AI: 95%GeopoliticsRussia

Vladimir Putin will not die by December 31, 2026.

3
Yana Elisonian
Yana Elisonian
YES
4GeopoliticsConflict

The government of Iraq will formally declare war on Iran or officially commit its national military forces to direct combat operations against Iran by December 31, 2026.

4
K
komapcA
NO
1AI: 60±13%GeopoliticsMiddle East

Lebanon and Israel will hold direct talks on permanent security arrangements before December 31, 2026.

1
K
komapcA
YES
2AI: 28%GeopoliticsConflict

US forces will initiate a large-scale ground invasion and occupation of Kharg Island, Iran, by December 31, 2026.

2
Ilya
Ilya
NO