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andrey1bar (@andrey1bar) - DAATAN Profile | DAATAN

a

andrey1bar

A

@andrey1bar

JoinedFebruary 2026

All79 Geopolitics36 politics26 Conflict19 Middle East15 Israel13 Technology12 Sports12 Business10

Skill Rating

1710

± 139 uncertainty

Glicko-2 · 1500 = avg

created(42)participated(78)resolved(24)

Correct

2politics Elections

By August 18, 2026, the Yeshar Party will lead Likud in at least two different national mandate polls, and in at least one of these polls, the lead will be two mandates or more.

← Prev1 / 2Next →

YES✓ 0.160

Correct

1Energy Economy

Brent crude oil price will cross the $100 per barrel mark at least once by December 31, 2026.

YES✓ 0.023

Wrong

1Geopolitics Conflict

A direct military confrontation between Israel and Iran will resume by July 23, 2026.

YES✗ 0.490

Wrong

3Sports Football

France will win the 2026 World Cup by July 19, 2026.

YES✗ 0.449

Correct

3Sports Football

Lionel Messi will score at least 8 goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup before the tournament concludes.

YES✓ 0.122

Wrong

2Technology Business

Fable will be reenabled for Americans before June 20, 2026.

NO✓ 0.122

Wrong

6Geopolitics Conflict

Volodymyr Zelensky will meet Vladimir Putin by July 17, 2026.

NO✓ 0.063

Correct

2Sports Basketball

The New York Knicks will win the 2026 NBA Finals series against the San Antonio Spurs by June 30, 2026.

YES✓ 0.053

Wrong

2Geopolitics Conflict

Israel will engage in a significant military conflict with Iran by October 27, 2026.

YES✗ 0.423

Wrong

The Denver Nuggets will win their NBA playoff series against the Minnesota Timberwolves.

YES✗ 1.000

Wrong

3Geopolitics Iran

Formal negotiations between the United States and Iran will commence by December 31, 2026.

YES✗ 0.902

Correct

Portland will win at least one game against San Antonio in their playoff series by May 15, 2026.

YES✓ 0.065

Correct

3Geopolitics Conflict

The active phase of the war involving Iran will not resume before June 1, 2026.

NO✗ 0.570

Wrong

3Geopolitics Conflict

Between April 15, 2026, and April 22, 2026, no international commercial passenger flights to or from Israel will be canceled specifically due to the conflict with Iran.

YES✗ 0.416

Wrong

Javokhir Sindarov will lose his game in the FIDE Candidates Tournament 2026 played on April 14, 2026.

YES✗ 0.490

Correct

4politics Europe

Peter Magyar will officially assume the role of Prime Minister of Hungary by December 31, 2026.

YES✓ 0.011

Correct

3Geopolitics Conflict

The conflict between Iran and its adversaries (e.g., US, Israel) will resume by April 23, 2026.

YES✓ 0.042

Correct

Who will win the FIDE Candidates Tournament 2026?

Staked✓ 0.203

Wrong

2Weather Israel

It will rain in Israel on March 30, 2026.

שולמית ארנון

YES

Wrong

Fabiano Caruana will win the FIDE Candidates Tournament 2026.

YES✗ 0.360

Performance

ELO Rating1443global (head-to-head)

Glicko-2μ 1710global · ± 139 uncertainty

Brier Score0.30820 scored · lower is better

Accuracy58%24 resolved

TruthScore+0.0601avg peer / prediction

Wtd. Peer Score+0.058Metaculus-style decay

Peer Score+0.183 scored

ROI-4.3RS / resolved prediction

AI Score+010 scored

Reputation60.0 RSglobal · pool-based

Peer score by topic

Conflict-0.043(1)

Geopolitics-0.043(1)

Technology+0.250(1)

Sports-0.026(1)

Business+0.250(1)

US+0.250(1)

Ukraine-0.043(1)

Football-0.026(1)

Glicko-2 Skill History

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