a
andrey1bar
A@andrey1bar
JoinedFebruary 2026
Skill Rating
1475
± 230 uncertainty
Glicko-2 · 1500 = avg
Performance
ELO Rating1453global (head-to-head)
Glicko-2μ 1475global · ± 230 uncertainty
Brier Score0.42510 scored · lower is better
Accuracy50%14 resolved
ROI-11.17RS / resolved prediction
AI Score-0.881 scored
Reputation0.0 RSglobal · pool-based
Glicko-2 Skill History
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Wrong
2SportsNBA
The Denver Nuggets will win their NBA playoff series against the Minnesota Timberwolves.
2commitments
A
andrey1barA
YES✗ 1.000
Wrong
3GeopoliticsIran
Formal negotiations between the United States and Iran will commence by December 31, 2026.
3commitments
K
komapcA
YES✗ 0.902
Correct
1SportsNBA
Portland will win at least one game against San Antonio in their playoff series by May 15, 2026.
1commitments
A
andrey1barA
YES✓ 0.065
Correct
3GeopoliticsConflict
The active phase of the war involving Iran will not resume before June 1, 2026.
3commitments
K
komapcA
NO✗ 0.570
Wrong
3GeopoliticsConflict
Between April 15, 2026, and April 22, 2026, no international commercial passenger flights to or from Israel will be canceled specifically due to the conflict with Iran.
3commitments
K
komapcA
YES✗ 0.416
Wrong
2ChessSports
Javokhir Sindarov will lose his game in the FIDE Candidates Tournament 2026 played on April 14, 2026.
2commitments
A
andrey1barA
YES✗ 0.490
Correct
3GeopoliticsConflict
The conflict between Iran and its adversaries (e.g., US, Israel) will resume by April 23, 2026.
3commitments
A
andrey1barA
YES✓ 0.042
Wrong
2SportsChess
Fabiano Caruana will win the FIDE Candidates Tournament 2026.
2commitments
A
andrey1barA
YES✗ 0.360
Correct
5GeopoliticsEnergy
The Strait of Hormuz will be fully closed to all international commercial shipping by April 9, 2026.
5commitments
K
komapcA
YES✓ 0.203
Correct
2ConflictGeopolitics
The major hostilities in the ongoing conflict in the Middle East will not formally end by March 8, 2026.
2commitments
A
andrey1barA
YES
Wrong
1GeopoliticsConflict
Zero rockets will be fired from any entity towards Israeli territory by the end of March 8, 2026.
1commitments
K
komapcA
NO
Correct
1SportsNBA
The Portland Trail Blazers will not win the NBA championship by the end of the 2026 season.
1commitments
A
andrey1barA
YES