a
andrey1bar
A@andrey1bar
JoinedFebruary 2026
Skill Rating
1475
± 230 uncertainty
Glicko-2 · 1500 = avg
Performance
ELO Rating1453global (head-to-head)
Glicko-2μ 1475global · ± 230 uncertainty
Brier Score · Conflict0.3084 scored · lower is better · limited data
Accuracy · Conflict67%6 resolved
ROI-3.33RS / resolved prediction
RS · Conflict-20
Reputation0.0 RSglobal · pool-based
Glicko-2 Skill History · Conflict
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Israel will withdraw its troops from southern Lebanon by December 31, 2026.
2commitments
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andrey1barA
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Ukraine will obtain more territory than it loses in its ongoing war with Russia by July 31, 2026.
1commitments
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andrey1barA
Wrong
GeopoliticsConflict
Will Ben Gurion Airport in Israel be closed due to war by May 28, 2026?
No source link
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Israel will engage in a significant military conflict with Iran by October 27, 2026.
1commitments
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andrey1barA
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The military conflict between the United States and Iran will formally end by December 31, 2026.
2commitments
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andrey1barA
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Israel will establish a permanent buffer zone in southern Lebanon and official sources will confirm the dismantling of Hezbollah's military infrastructure within that zone by December 31, 2026.
2commitments
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andrey1barA
Correct
3GeopoliticsConflict
The conflict between Iran and its adversaries (e.g., US, Israel) will resume by April 23, 2026.
3commitments
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andrey1barA
Correct
2ConflictGeopolitics
The major hostilities in the ongoing conflict in the Middle East will not formally end by March 8, 2026.
2commitments
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andrey1barA
Correct
1GeopoliticsConflict
The United States will not conduct a military strike against Iran by February 22, 2026.
1commitments
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andrey1barA