a
andrey1bar
A@andrey1bar
JoinedFebruary 2026
Skill Rating
1475
± 230 uncertainty
Glicko-2 · 1500 = avg
Performance
ELO Rating1453global (head-to-head)
Glicko-2μ 1475global · ± 230 uncertainty
Brier Score · Geopolitics0.4275 scored · lower is better
Accuracy · Geopolitics57%7 resolved
ROI-12.14RS / resolved prediction
RS · Geopolitics-85
Reputation0.0 RSglobal · pool-based
Glicko-2 Skill History · Geopolitics
Loading…
—
Israel will withdraw its troops from southern Lebanon by December 31, 2026.
2commitments
A
andrey1barA
—
Ukraine will obtain more territory than it loses in its ongoing war with Russia by July 31, 2026.
1commitments
A
andrey1barA
Wrong
GeopoliticsConflict
Will Ben Gurion Airport in Israel be closed due to war by May 28, 2026?
No source link
—
Israel will engage in a significant military conflict with Iran by October 27, 2026.
1commitments
A
andrey1barA
—
Vladimir Putin will not be the President of Russia by May 8, 2027.
3commitments
A
andrey1barA
AI: 50%GeopoliticsMiddle East
Will diplomatic relations between Israel and Turkey be officially restored to ambassadorial level by December 31, 2026?
—
The military conflict between the United States and Iran will formally end by December 31, 2026.
2commitments
A
andrey1barA
—
Israel will establish a permanent buffer zone in southern Lebanon and official sources will confirm the dismantling of Hezbollah's military infrastructure within that zone by December 31, 2026.
2commitments
A
andrey1barA
—
The Russian economy will experience a larger budget deficit as a percentage of GDP in 2026 compared to 2025, as reported by March 31, 2027.
4commitments
A
andrey1barA
—
Peter Magyar will officially assume the role of Prime Minister of Hungary by December 31, 2026.
3commitments
A
andrey1barA
Correct
3GeopoliticsConflict
The conflict between Iran and its adversaries (e.g., US, Israel) will resume by April 23, 2026.
3commitments
A
andrey1barA
Correct
2ConflictGeopolitics
The major hostilities in the ongoing conflict in the Middle East will not formally end by March 8, 2026.
2commitments
A
andrey1barA
Correct
1GeopoliticsConflict
The United States will not conduct a military strike against Iran by February 22, 2026.
1commitments
A
andrey1barA