andrey1bar

@andrey1bar

JoinedFebruary 2026

All79 Geopolitics36 politics26 Conflict19 Middle East15 Israel13 Technology12 Sports12 Business10

Skill Rating

1710

± 139 uncertainty

Glicko-2 · 1500 = avg

created(16)participated(36)resolved(12)

Correct

1Energy Economy

Brent crude oil price will cross the $100 per barrel mark at least once by December 31, 2026.

andrey1bar

Wrong

1Geopolitics Conflict

A direct military confrontation between Israel and Iran will resume by July 23, 2026.

andrey1bar

4AI: 39±6%Geopolitics Conflict

Israel will withdraw its troops from southern Lebanon by December 31, 2026.

andrey1bar

Pending

2Geopolitics Conflict

Ukraine will obtain more territory than it loses in its ongoing war with Russia by July 31, 2026.

andrey1bar

Wrong

Geopolitics Conflict

Will Ben Gurion Airport in Israel be closed due to war by May 28, 2026?

andrey1bar

Wrong

2Geopolitics Conflict

Israel will engage in a significant military conflict with Iran by October 27, 2026.

andrey1bar

3AI: 49±10%Geopolitics Russia

Vladimir Putin will not be the President of Russia by May 8, 2027.

andrey1bar

AI: 47±34%Geopolitics Middle East

Diplomatic relations between Israel and Turkey are officially restored to ambassadorial level by December 31, 2026.

andrey1bar

2AI: 39±3%Geopolitics Conflict

The military conflict between the United States and Iran will formally end by December 31, 2026.

andrey1bar

2AI: 53±6%Geopolitics Conflict

Israel will establish a permanent buffer zone in southern Lebanon and official sources will confirm the dismantling of Hezbollah's military infrastructure within that zone by December 31, 2026.

andrey1bar

4AI: 73±4%Economy Geopolitics

The Russian economy will experience a larger budget deficit as a percentage of GDP in 2026 compared to 2025, as reported by March 31, 2027.

andrey1bar

Correct

4politics Europe

Peter Magyar will officially assume the role of Prime Minister of Hungary by December 31, 2026.

andrey1bar

Correct

3Geopolitics Conflict

The conflict between Iran and its adversaries (e.g., US, Israel) will resume by April 23, 2026.

andrey1bar

Correct

2Conflict Geopolitics

The major hostilities in the ongoing conflict in the Middle East will not formally end by March 8, 2026.

andrey1bar

Correct

1Geopolitics Conflict

The United States will not conduct a military strike against Iran by February 22, 2026.

andrey1bar

Draft

Geopolitics Conflict

Israel will not launch a military strike against targets within Iran prior to February 11, 2026.

andrey1bar

Performance

ELO Rating1443global (head-to-head)

Glicko-2μ 1710global · ± 139 uncertainty

Brier Score · Geopolitics0.31410 scored · lower is better

Accuracy · Geopolitics58%12 resolved

Wtd. Peer Score—need 2 more peer-scored

Peer Score · Geopolitics-0.041 scored

ROI-5RS / resolved prediction

AI Score · Geopolitics-0.454 scored

RS · Geopolitics-60

Reputation60.0 RSglobal · pool-based

Glicko-2 Skill History · Geopolitics

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