a

andrey1bar

A

@andrey1bar

JoinedFebruary 2026

All79 Geopolitics36 politics26 Conflict19 Middle East15 Israel13 Technology12 Sports12 Business10

Skill Rating

1710

± 139 uncertainty

Glicko-2 · 1500 = avg

created(11)participated(19)resolved(9)

Wrong

1Geopolitics Conflict

A direct military confrontation between Israel and Iran will resume by July 23, 2026.

A

andrey1bar

4AI: 39±6%Geopolitics Conflict

Israel will withdraw its troops from southern Lebanon by December 31, 2026.

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andrey1bar

Pending

2Geopolitics Conflict

Ukraine will obtain more territory than it loses in its ongoing war with Russia by July 31, 2026.

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andrey1bar

Wrong

Geopolitics Conflict

Will Ben Gurion Airport in Israel be closed due to war by May 28, 2026?

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andrey1bar

Wrong

2Geopolitics Conflict

Israel will engage in a significant military conflict with Iran by October 27, 2026.

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andrey1bar

2AI: 39±3%Geopolitics Conflict

The military conflict between the United States and Iran will formally end by December 31, 2026.

A

andrey1bar

2AI: 53±6%Geopolitics Conflict

Israel will establish a permanent buffer zone in southern Lebanon and official sources will confirm the dismantling of Hezbollah's military infrastructure within that zone by December 31, 2026.

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andrey1bar

Correct

3Geopolitics Conflict

The conflict between Iran and its adversaries (e.g., US, Israel) will resume by April 23, 2026.

A

andrey1bar

Correct

2Conflict Geopolitics

The major hostilities in the ongoing conflict in the Middle East will not formally end by March 8, 2026.

A

andrey1bar

Correct

1Geopolitics Conflict

The United States will not conduct a military strike against Iran by February 22, 2026.

A

andrey1bar

Draft

Geopolitics Conflict

Israel will not launch a military strike against targets within Iran prior to February 11, 2026.

A

andrey1bar

Performance

ELO Rating1443global (head-to-head)

Glicko-2μ 1710global · ± 139 uncertainty

Brier Score · Conflict0.3157 scored · lower is better

Accuracy · Conflict56%9 resolved

Wtd. Peer Score—need 2 more peer-scored

Peer Score · Conflict-0.041 scored

ROI-4.67RS / resolved prediction

AI Score · Conflict-0.553 scored

RS · Conflict-42

Reputation60.0 RSglobal · pool-based

Glicko-2 Skill History · Conflict

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