A high-intensity military conflict will resume between Iran and US/allied forces by early May 2026, and the Strait of Hormuz will be open to international shipping by mid-May 2026.

Uri Gordon

YES

7AI: 48±5%Israeli Elections 2026 Middle East

Netanyahu will be Israel's Prime Minister

Benjamin Netanyahu will win the 2026 Israeli general election and be appointed Prime Minister.

Yana Elisonian

2AI: 55±5%Conflict Geopolitics

US will invade Kharg

US forces will initiate a large-scale ground invasion and occupation of Kharg Island, Iran, by December 31, 2026.

Ilya

YES

Performance

Accuracy · Middle East0%3 resolved

The share of resolved forecasts that turned out right. Ignores how confident you were.

Brier Score · Middle East0.4923 scored · lower is better · limited data

How close the probabilities were to what actually happened: (probability − outcome)², averaged. 0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip, lower is better.

Evgeny Ber

Likud will secure 33+ Knesset seats

No Iran-Israel missile strikes

Iran, US will resume conflict

Netanyahu will be Israel's Prime Minister

Iran war will not resume

Global conflicts will cease

US will invade Kharg