Skill Rating
1597
± 290 uncertainty
Glicko-2 · 1500 = avg
Performance
ELO Rating1500global (head-to-head)
Glicko-2μ 1597global · ± 290 uncertainty
Brier Score · Conflict0.2022 scored · lower is better · limited data
RS · Conflict+10
Reputation133.0 RSglobal · pool-based
Glicko-2 Skill History · Conflict
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A ceasefire lasting longer than one week will not be implemented in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2026.
4commitments
Lev Kan
NO
—
There will be no missile strikes launched from Iranian territory against Israel, nor from Israeli territory against Iran, during May 2026.
2commitments
Lev Kan
YES
—
A high-intensity military conflict will resume between Iran and US/allied forces by early May 2026, and the Strait of Hormuz will be open to international shipping by mid-May 2026.
4commitments
Uri Gordon
YES
—
The active phase of the war involving Iran will not resume before June 1, 2026.
3commitments
K
komapcA
NO
Correct
2IranGeopolitics
A ceasefire will be declared in the conflict involving Iran by April 30, 2026.
2commitments
omri cohen-alloroA
NO
Correct
5GeopoliticsEnergy
The Strait of Hormuz will be fully closed to all international commercial shipping by April 9, 2026.
5commitments
K
komapcA
YES
—
All active armed conflicts globally will cease by December 31, 2026.
3commitments
Anti Spamer
NO
—
US forces will initiate a large-scale ground invasion and occupation of Kharg Island, Iran, by December 31, 2026.
2commitments
Ilya
YES