Evgeny Ber

JoinedMarch 2026

All25 Geopolitics15 Conflict9 Middle East7 politics5 Sports5 Chess4 Europe3 Technology2

Skill Rating

1616

± 195 uncertainty

Glicko-2 · 1500 = avg

Performance

ELO Rating1429global (head-to-head)

Glicko-2μ 1616global · ± 195 uncertainty

Brier Score · Conflict0.3765 scored · lower is better

Accuracy · Conflict40%5 resolved

Wtd. Peer Score—need 2 more peer-scored

Peer Score · Conflict-0.011 scored

ROI-12.6RS / resolved prediction

AI Score · Conflict-0.011 scored

RS · Conflict-63

Reputation83.0 RSglobal · pool-based

Glicko-2 Skill History · Conflict

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created(0)participated(9)resolved(5)

3AI: 30%Geopolitics Russia

There will be a military mobilisation in Russia by September 5, 2026.

komapc

YES

5AI: 41±14%Geopolitics Conflict

A ceasefire lasting longer than one week will not be implemented in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2026.

Lev Kan

Wrong

2Geopolitics Conflict

There will be no missile strikes launched from Iranian territory against Israel, nor from Israeli territory against Iran, during May 2026.

Lev Kan

YES

Wrong

4Geopolitics Conflict

A high-intensity military conflict will resume between Iran and US/allied forces by early May 2026, and the Strait of Hormuz will be open to international shipping by mid-May 2026.

Uri Gordon

YES

Correct

3Geopolitics Conflict

The active phase of the war involving Iran will not resume before June 1, 2026.

komapc

Correct

2Iran Geopolitics

A ceasefire will be declared in the conflict involving Iran by April 30, 2026.

omri cohen-alloro

Correct

5Geopolitics Energy

The Strait of Hormuz will be fully closed to all international commercial shipping by April 9, 2026.

komapc

YES

3Geopolitics Conflict

All active armed conflicts globally will cease by December 31, 2026.

Anti Spamer

2AI: 59±10%Geopolitics Conflict

US forces will initiate a large-scale ground invasion and occupation of Kharg Island, Iran, by December 31, 2026.

Ilya

YES