k
komapc
A@komapc
JoinedFebruary 2026
Skill Rating
1715
± 232 uncertainty
Glicko-2 · 1500 = avg
Performance
ELO Rating1545global (head-to-head)
Glicko-2μ 1715global · ± 232 uncertainty
Brier Score0.28210 scored · lower is better
Accuracy63%16 resolved
ROI-1.63RS / resolved prediction
AI Score+0.482 scored
Reputation72.3 RSglobal · pool-based
Glicko-2 Skill History
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Israel will establish a long-term military occupation of a part of southern Lebanon by December 31, 2026.
1commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
Vladimir Putin will officially receive less than 60% of the total votes in the next Russian presidential election held by December 31, 2026.
2commitments
K
komapcA
YES
—
At least three additional US states will pass comprehensive right-to-repair legislation by December 31, 2026.
1commitments
K
komapcA
YES
—
Iran will officially agree to give up all its enriched uranium by December 31, 2026.
2commitments
K
komapcA
NO
Wrong
3GeopoliticsIran
Formal negotiations between the United States and Iran will commence by December 31, 2026.
3commitments
K
komapcA
YES
—
Israel will officially implement a nationwide universal basic income (UBI) program for its citizens by April 19, 2036.
2commitments
K
komapcA
YES
—
Benjamin Netanyahu will win the 2026 Israeli general election and be appointed Prime Minister.
7commitments
Yana Elisonian
NO
—
The Russian economy will experience a larger budget deficit as a percentage of GDP in 2026 compared to 2025, as reported by March 31, 2027.
4commitments
A
andrey1barA
YES
—
The United States will formally withdraw its membership from the United Nations by December 31, 2026.
3commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
D. Gukesh will lose his World Chess Champion title in his next title defense match by December 31, 2026.
4commitments
K
komapcA
YES
Wrong
3GeopoliticsConflict
Between April 15, 2026, and April 22, 2026, no international commercial passenger flights to or from Israel will be canceled specifically due to the conflict with Iran.
3commitments
K
komapcA
YES
Wrong
2ChessSports
Javokhir Sindarov will lose his game in the FIDE Candidates Tournament 2026 played on April 14, 2026.
2commitments
A
andrey1barA
NO
Correct
3GeopoliticsConflict
The active phase of the war involving Iran will not resume before June 1, 2026.
3commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
Likud will win the next general election in Israel held by December 31, 2026.
2commitments
K
komapcA
YES
—
A publicly reported congress or conference held in Israel will have exactly 50 participants by December 31, 2026.
1commitments
K
komapcA
YES
Correct
3GeopoliticsConflict
The conflict between Iran and its adversaries (e.g., US, Israel) will resume by April 23, 2026.
3commitments
A
andrey1barA
NO
—
Esperanto Wikipedia will have more than 400,000 articles by December 31, 2026.
1commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
Javokhir Sindarov will reach a FIDE standard rating of 2800 by December 31, 2026.
1commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
The Israeli army will maintain a presence in Lebanese territory until at least December 31, 2026.
No source link
2commitments
K
komapcA
YES
—
At least one additional U.S. military aircraft will crash in the ongoing conflict involving Iran by December 31, 2026.
3commitments
K
komapcA
56% YES