a
andrey1bar
A@andrey1bar
JoinedFebruary 2026
Skill Rating
1475
± 230 uncertainty
Glicko-2 · 1500 = avg
Performance
ELO Rating1453global (head-to-head)
Glicko-2μ 1475global · ± 230 uncertainty
Brier Score · Middle East0.5701 scored · lower is better · limited data
Accuracy · Middle East67%3 resolved
ROI-9.67RS / resolved prediction
RS · Middle East-29
Reputation0.0 RSglobal · pool-based
Glicko-2 Skill History · Middle East
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Correct
3GeopoliticsConflict
The active phase of the war involving Iran will not resume before June 1, 2026.
3commitments
K
komapcA
NO✗ 0.570
Correct
2ConflictGeopolitics
The major hostilities in the ongoing conflict in the Middle East will not formally end by March 8, 2026.
2commitments
A
andrey1barA
YES
Wrong
1GeopoliticsConflict
Zero rockets will be fired from any entity towards Israeli territory by the end of March 8, 2026.
1commitments
K
komapcA
NO