a
andrey1bar
A@andrey1bar
JoinedFebruary 2026
Skill Rating
1475
± 230 uncertainty
Glicko-2 · 1500 = avg
Performance
ELO Rating1453global (head-to-head)
Glicko-2μ 1475global · ± 230 uncertainty
Brier Score · Middle East0.5701 scored · lower is better · limited data
Accuracy · Middle East67%3 resolved
ROI-9.67RS / resolved prediction
RS · Middle East-29
Reputation0.0 RSglobal · pool-based
Glicko-2 Skill History · Middle East
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Israel will withdraw its troops from southern Lebanon by December 31, 2026.
2commitments
A
andrey1barA
YES
—
The next Israeli government will not include any Arab ministers by December 31, 2026.
3commitments
K
komapcA
YES
—
The death penalty will be fully abolished in Israel by May 18, 2031.
2commitments
K
komapcA
YES
—
Israel will engage in a significant military conflict with Iran by October 27, 2026.
1commitments
A
andrey1barA
YES
—
Israel will establish a permanent buffer zone in southern Lebanon and official sources will confirm the dismantling of Hezbollah's military infrastructure within that zone by December 31, 2026.
2commitments
A
andrey1barA
YES
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Benjamin Netanyahu will win the 2026 Israeli general election and be appointed Prime Minister.
7commitments
Yana Elisonian
NO
Correct
3GeopoliticsConflict
The active phase of the war involving Iran will not resume before June 1, 2026.
3commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
Benjamin Netanyahu will be the Prime Minister of Israel on December 31, 2026.
3commitments
RH
Roman Halfin
NO
—
Benjamin Netanyahu will be appointed Prime Minister of Israel following the next general election, by December 31, 2026.
3commitments
Avihai Zarouk
NO
—
The government of Iraq will formally declare war on Iran or officially commit its national military forces to direct combat operations against Iran by December 31, 2026.
4commitments
K
komapcA
NO
Correct
2ConflictGeopolitics
The major hostilities in the ongoing conflict in the Middle East will not formally end by March 8, 2026.
2commitments
A
andrey1barA
YES
Wrong
1GeopoliticsConflict
Zero rockets will be fired from any entity towards Israeli territory by the end of March 8, 2026.
1commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
The United Nations will grant Palestine full member state status by February 7, 2028.
1commitments
Mark Janwuf
YES