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Kron BM (@kron_bm) - DAATAN Profile | DAATAN

K

Kron BM

@kron_bm

JoinedMay 2026

All43 politics17 Geopolitics16 Israeli Elections 202611 Technology9 Israel9 Conflict7 Middle East7 Elections7

ELO Rating

1483

all topics · head-to-head

Everyone starts at 1500. Beat the other forecasters on the same event and you take points from them; lose and they take yours.

created(14)participated(43)resolved(12)

4AI: 51±10%Mathematics AI

Four Millennium Problems will be solved

At least 4 of the seven Millennium Prize Problems in mathematics will be officially recognized as solved by December 31, 2026.

NO

2AI: 64±7%Geopolitics Security

Israel will screen foreign pilots

Israel will require foreign airlines to submit in advance the details of pilots on flights to Israel for security screening, by October 31, 2026.

← Prev1 / 3Next →

YES

4AI: 59±7%politics Israel

Knesset turnout will top 73%

The voter turnout in the upcoming Knesset elections will reach at least 73%.

YES

3AI: 32±31%politics Elections

Next Israeli PM won't serve full term

The next Prime Minister of Israel (after the October 27, 2026 Knesset elections) will serve for less than a full four-year term.

YES

4AI: 29±27%politics Elections

Am Yisrael won't pass threshold

Am Yisrael will not pass the electoral threshold in the next general elections for the Knesset by December 31, 2026.

NO

3AI: 64±7%Israel Immigration

Israel immigration will exceed 25,000

The number of immigrants to Israel will exceed 25,000 in the year 5787.

YES

5AI: 33±13%Geopolitics Middle East

Palestinian state won't be established

A sovereign and internationally recognized Palestinian state will not be officially established by June 1, 2027.

YES

3AI: 50%Technology gaming

Chess.com will pass 500M users

Chess.com will have more than 500,000,000 registered users by December 31, 2030.

YES

Pending

1Economy US Politics

Fed will hike rates

The U.S. Federal Reserve will raise its benchmark interest rate by at least 0.25 percentage points at its September 2026 meeting.

YES

Correct

3politics Israeli Elections

Segalovitz will be Ra'am candidate

Yoav Segalovitz will be a candidate on the Ra'am party list in the next Knesset elections.

YES

3AI: 68±7%Quantum Computing Technology

Fault-tolerant quantum computer will be available

A fault-tolerant quantum computer will be available to commercial users before January 1, 2030.

NO

Pending

3Geopolitics Conflict

Baltic drone will fall again

At least one more drone will fall in one of the Baltic countries after August 15 and by September 15, 2026.

YES

Wrong

Anthropic will acquire Decart

Anthropic will announce the acquisition of Israeli AI startup Decart by August 31, 2026.

YES

1AI: 61±5%Geopolitics Conflict

Israel will attack Iran

Israel will carry out a new aerial attack on Iranian territory by October 27, 2026.

YES

3AI: 59±4%Geopolitics Iran

Iran regime will collapse

The current regime in Iran will collapse by August 10, 2029.

YES

2AI: 62±9%Technology Geopolitics

Russia will forbid Telegram

Telegram will be officially forbidden in Russia by December 31, 2026.

YES

4AI: 61±12%politics Elections

Knesset party won't top 25 seats

In the next Knesset elections, no single party will receive more than 25 seats.

YES

Correct

1Technology Business

Google will unveil Pixel 11 foldable

Google will unveil a foldable model in the Pixel 11 series on August 12, 2026.

YES

Wrong

3politics Israeli Elections 2026

Blue and White won't run independently

The Blue and White party, led by Benny Gantz, will announce by the end of August 2026 that it will not run in the next elections as an independent party.

YES

Wrong

1Economy US Politics

US unemployment will hit 4.2%

The U.S. unemployment rate for August 2026 comes in at 4.2% or higher.

YES

Performance

Accuracy67%12 resolved

The share of resolved forecasts that turned out right. Ignores how confident you were.

Brier Score0.23112 scored · lower is better

How close the probabilities were to what actually happened: (probability − outcome)², averaged. 0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip, lower is better.