k
komapc
A@komapc
JoinedFebruary 2026
Skill Rating
1715
± 232 uncertainty
Glicko-2 · 1500 = avg
Performance
ELO Rating1545global (head-to-head)
Glicko-2μ 1715global · ± 232 uncertainty
Brier Score0.28210 scored · lower is better
Accuracy63%16 resolved
ROI-1.63RS / resolved prediction
AI Score+0.482 scored
Reputation72.3 RSglobal · pool-based
Glicko-2 Skill History
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The new central bus station in Tel Aviv will be demolished by December 31, 2030.
No source link
4commitments
Maria Deshpet
92% YES
—
Vladimir Putin will not die by December 31, 2026.
3commitments
Yana Elisonian
NO
—
Telegram will be unblocked in Russia by the end of October 2026.
2commitments
Polina Ber
NO
—
The government of Iraq will formally declare war on Iran or officially commit its national military forces to direct combat operations against Iran by December 31, 2026.
4commitments
K
komapcA
YES
—
All active armed conflicts globally will cease by December 31, 2026.
3commitments
Anti Spamer
NO
Correct
5GeopoliticsEnergy
The Strait of Hormuz will be fully closed to all international commercial shipping by April 9, 2026.
5commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
The S&P 500 index will experience a market crash of 20% or more from its peak by December 31, 2027.
1commitments
K
komapcA
NO
Wrong
1EnergyEconomy
The price of WTI crude oil will be lower tomorrow at least 10 per cent than today
1commitments
K
komapcA
NO
Unresolvable
4EconomyCurrencies
The Israeli Shekel will strengthen against the Chinese Yuan by March 31, 2026.
4commitments
A
andrey1barA
NO
Correct
2ConflictGeopolitics
The major hostilities in the ongoing conflict in the Middle East will not formally end by March 8, 2026.
2commitments
A
andrey1barA
YES
Wrong
1GeopoliticsConflict
Bat Yam will not experience any rocket or missile strikes on March 4, 2026.
1commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
Kim Ju Ae will be officially designated as the successor to Kim Jong Un by December 31, 2026.
1commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
Magnus Carlsen will no longer be the FIDE World No. 1 rated chess player by December 31, 2028.
3commitments
K
komapcA
NO
Correct
1GeopoliticsConflict
The United States will conduct military strikes against Iran by March 31, 2026.
1commitments
K
komapcA
NO
Pending
1AITechnology
A Chinese AI model will demonstrably outperform Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 or a newer Claude model on a widely recognized AI benchmark before June 21, 2026.
1commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
Will significant new destruction by Sudan's Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in El Fasher be reported by credible international organizations or major news outlets by December 31, 2026?
1commitments
K
komapcA
YES
Correct
1GeopoliticsConflict
The United States will not conduct a military strike against Iran by February 22, 2026.
1commitments
A
andrey1barA
YES