k
komapc
A@komapc
JoinedFebruary 2026
Skill Rating
1715
± 232 uncertainty
Glicko-2 · 1500 = avg
Performance
ELO Rating1545global (head-to-head)
Glicko-2μ 1715global · ± 232 uncertainty
Brier Score · Geopolitics0.3697 scored · lower is better
Accuracy · Geopolitics58%12 resolved
ROI-6.6RS / resolved prediction
AI Score · Geopolitics+0.482 scored
RS · Geopolitics-79.3
Reputation72.3 RSglobal · pool-based
Glicko-2 Skill History · Geopolitics
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—
Volodymyr Zelensky will meet Vladimir Putin by July 17, 2026.
4commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
A new military conflict will begin in Africa before December 3, 2026.
1commitments
K
komapcA
YES
Correct
2GeopoliticsConflict
A memorandum of understanding (MoU) or a peace deal between Iran and the USA will be officially signed by June 20, 2026.
2commitments
K
komapcA
YES
—
Benjamin Netanyahu will be the Prime Minister of Israel on December 31, 2026.
3commitments
RH
Roman Halfin
NO
—
The next Israeli government will not include any Arab ministers by December 31, 2026.
3commitments
K
komapcA
YES
Pending
1politicsElections
Nikol Pashinyan will win the Armenian parliamentary elections held on June 7, 2026.
1commitments
K
komapcA
YES
—
Armenia will join the European Union by December 31, 2026.
2commitments
K
komapcA
YES
—
By December 31, 2028, Montenegro will become a full member state of the European Union.
No source link
2commitments
KB
Kron BM
NO
—
Iran will continue to enforce its two-tier internet access regime for the general public by December 31, 2026.
3commitments
K
komapcA
YES
—
Vladimir Putin will not be the President of Russia by May 8, 2027.
3commitments
A
andrey1barA
NO
Correct
3GeopoliticsConflict
Ukraine will not launch a direct military attack on Moscow by May 9, 2026.
3commitments
K
komapcA
YES
—
The military conflict between the United States and Iran will formally end by December 31, 2026.
2commitments
A
andrey1barA
YES
—
Israel will establish a long-term military occupation of a part of southern Lebanon by December 31, 2026.
1commitments
K
komapcA
NO
—
Vladimir Putin will officially receive less than 60% of the total votes in the next Russian presidential election held by December 31, 2026.
2commitments
K
komapcA
YES
—
Iran will officially agree to give up all its enriched uranium by December 31, 2026.
2commitments
K
komapcA
NO
Wrong
3GeopoliticsIran
Formal negotiations between the United States and Iran will commence by December 31, 2026.
3commitments
K
komapcA
YES
—
The Russian economy will experience a larger budget deficit as a percentage of GDP in 2026 compared to 2025, as reported by March 31, 2027.
4commitments
A
andrey1barA
YES
—
The United States will formally withdraw its membership from the United Nations by December 31, 2026.
3commitments
K
komapcA
NO
Wrong
3GeopoliticsConflict
Between April 15, 2026, and April 22, 2026, no international commercial passenger flights to or from Israel will be canceled specifically due to the conflict with Iran.
3commitments
K
komapcA
YES
Correct
3GeopoliticsConflict
The active phase of the war involving Iran will not resume before June 1, 2026.
3commitments
K
komapcA
NO